On Sunday, President Donald Trump revealed that the U.S. and Iran have come to an agreement to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) aimed at ending the ongoing war, which has lasted for several months. The formal signing is set to occur in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday.
It’s important to note that the MOU isn’t a complete peace agreement yet. Rather, it represents a significant step in what could potentially lead to the conclusion of the conflict that started on February 28. Trump mentioned that he might submit the MOU to Congress for their evaluation, adding that he plans to read it at a press conference once it’s public.
Details about the MOU remain limited. In essence, it seeks to halt fighting across all fronts, including Lebanon, while initiating a 60-day negotiation period to tackle complex issues like Iran’s nuclear activities, uranium enrichment, the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, and the matter of sanctions relief. An Iranian news agency has shared a 14-point proposal that allegedly outlines the MOU, claiming it was “electronically signed” by Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, though the validity of this information is uncertain.
One clear obstacle to peace appears to be factions intent on disrupting the negotiations and prolonging the war. This includes hardliners within the Iranian system, as well as certain Israeli groups and proponents of aggressive approaches towards Iran.
The Israelis
Israel has made it clear that they do not intend to end their presence in Lebanon, which seems to be a pivotal aspect of the MOU. The Supreme National Security Council of Iran has stated that under this agreement, all military operations, including those in Lebanon, are supposed to cease immediately and permanently. Trump’s pointed criticisms of Israel during the G7 summit suggest that Lebanon will be significant in any future discussions.
Despite this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that troops will remain in Lebanon “for as long as necessary,” expressing that they have created vital security territories around Israel, asserting their continuation in those areas.
Statements from his right-wing allies further indicate a strong resistance to any peace movement. Defense Minister Israel Katz emphasized that the Israeli Defense Forces will maintain their position in Southern Lebanon, stating that Israel will “resist any pressure” towards concluding the conflict. Other influential figures have also criticized the MOU, labeling it detrimental to both Israel and the global community.
The Iran Hawks and Israel Firsters
Neoconservatives and hardliners focused on Iran have recently intensified their rhetoric against the peace deal, with many mounting pressure on the Trump administration to withdraw from the process and revert to military action. Some commentators have denounced a leaked proposal as disastrous, while others criticized Israel’s exclusion from negotiations.
Additional voices, including contributors from various media outlets, have compared the MOU unfavorably to past agreements involving Iran, seeking to motivate the administration to insist on substantial Iranian concessions that may be unacceptable to Iran and ultimately resuming hostilities.
The Iranian Hardliners
Meanwhile, hardline factions within Iran expressed their discontent regarding the potential for an agreement with the U.S., associating Trump with past assassinations of key Iranian figures. These hardliners resist making significant compromises, seeking full control over the Strait of Hormuz along with the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. There are indications that the Paydari Front, a hardline political group, is particularly resistant to a deal.
On the flip side, moderates within Iran are advocating for a negotiated resolution that would still protect Iranian interests. A notable figure among these moderates is Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has reportedly pushed for a more diplomatic approach.
Iran expert Trita Parsi has suggested that some recent proposals circulating in Iranian media might be attempts to sabotage the negotiations, possibly skewing public perception and expectations in a way that would undercut the final agreement. Parsi emphasized that some factions are actively working to undermine any potential progress, showcasing their opposition during public protests in Tehran.
