Fool me once, and I feel embarrassed. Fool me twice, and I feel ashamed.
If it happens many times, well, I might just give up.
From the moment he took office in 2017, President Trump made it clear where he stood regarding communist China.
When he got a congratulatory call from then-President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan—she had only been in office for about eight months—he accepted it graciously, much like any good wishes from other leaders. He ignored warnings from advisors about the longstanding U.S. policy of not having direct contact with Taiwan since relations were severed in the late 1970s. He simply told those who were concerned to let others know he would choose his own path.
This bold, unconventional stance provided a sense of hope for the people in Taiwan and their supporters across the globe. It raised expectations that Trump would take a different approach to Beijing’s sensitivities over Taiwan.
Throughout his term, Trump continued to take a direct approach toward both Taiwan and China with the backing of a national security team filled with so-called “hawks.” This team, which included Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and advisors like John Bolton, was known for its clear stance about the threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party.
After his reelection, however, the Trump administration did not announce any congratulatory call from Taiwan’s newly elected president, William Lai. This might be connected to Trump’s decision to skip allowing Lai to make a stopover in New York during an upcoming trip to South America. This marked a change from previous traditions and has raised questions about the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Some think that this decision might have been influenced by concerns over China’s possible threats to Lai, leading to a more cautious stance. Speculatively, there might have been intelligence warnings that influenced the cancellation of Lai’s trip, serving as a convenient distraction for the administration.
The abruptness of this cancellation suggests that Trump weighs U.S. interests carefully between China and Taiwan. This situation reflects a broader issue: opinions like that of Elbridge Colby, a former Pentagon official, who argued the resources for Ukraine could detract from defending against a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.
Colby indicated that Taiwan is important but not essential to U.S. interests. This stark realization underscores the need for the U.S. to maintain its credibility among allies, especially in light of previous actions that have hurt America’s international standing.
The repercussions of perceptions of unreliability are evident, as seen during the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, which diminished trust ahead of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although Trump later made a decisive move against Iran’s nuclear program, doubts about U.S. reliability lingered.
There are significant risks surrounding Taiwan, particularly considering potential Chinese aggressions such as seizing islands or blockading Taiwan, which would provoke a U.S. military response that might not deter Beijing.
The dilemma is whether to risk escalating tensions at the expense of trade talks and Trump’s potential visit to Beijing or simply accept the new normal, thereby inadvertently boosting Xi’s leverage. China also holds its own cards, including control over rare earth materials vital for U.S. defense. The U.S. must navigate these pressures carefully to avoid further compromising its security credibility.
Recently, Trump expressed doubts about trusting Putin in the Ukraine conflict, paralleling his past experiences with Xi regarding COVID origins. He seems to repeatedly place faith in autocrats, often at the cost of democratic allies in regions like Ukraine and Taiwan.
His latest comments imply that while he may have recognized the truth about Putin, he still seeks trade agreements that appear to play into China’s hands. Historically, China has profited from U.S. presidential diplomacy, often resulting in concessions during trade discussions. This includes Trump’s past flexibility with TikTok, supposedly respecting China while negotiating Taiwan matters.
To avoid further discrediting the U.S. and conceding to China, Trump needs to make a clear and strong commitment to protect Taiwan militarily.
Joseph A. Bosco previously served as China’s country director within the Department of Defense and is currently involved with the Vandenberg Coalition and the Global Taiwan Institute.
