From city leaders to officials at the state level, a consistent message is emerging: crime rates are going down. Detroit Mayor Mary Sheffield highlighted a 10 percent reduction in both violent and property crime, along with the city’s lowest homicide rate in six decades. In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass noted a 19% decrease in homicides, while the chief of police mentioned a “significant drop in property crimes.” Similarly, Chicago’s Mayor Brandon Johnson referred to 2025 as an incredibly transformative year for reducing violence, with a notable decline in property crimes like robbery coinciding with fewer shootings. National FBI data appears to support these claims, reflecting a downturn in both violent and property crime as significant investments in public safety start to show results.
However, this celebration might overlook some underlying issues. The data largely relies on crimes reported by victims, and many property crimes—the most common in the U.S.—go unreported. One critic of Mayor Bass suggested that the reduction in crime statistics stems from a sense of resignation among residents who feel reporting crimes is futile.
The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), conducted by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, aims to capture crimes not reflected in police reports. The latest figures from 2024 show approximately 13.1 million instances of property damage, but only about 30% were reported to law enforcement. Furthermore, FBI data for 2024 indicates just one out of six offenses led to an arrest, with an overall clearance rate for property crimes at only 15.9%, and a mere 9.2% for auto theft, while homicides have a clearance rate of 61.4%. This suggests that criminals may perceive little risk associated with property offenses.
New York City exemplifies this disconnect. On April 2, Mayor Zoran Mamdani and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch announced that the first quarter of 2026 yielded the lowest homicide and shooting rates on record, with only 54 homicides—a 28 percent drop from the prior year. Major crime dropped by 5% across all boroughs. Commissioner Tisch celebrated a 21% reduction in robberies and a 20% decline in retail theft. Earlier in January, Governor Kathy Hochul had already called New York City the “safest large city in the country.”
Having spent years in the NYPD, I recognize the significant reduction in gun violence in certain cities as a testament to ongoing police efforts. However, the reality appears different when it comes to property crime. The NYPD’s quarterly arrest reports reveal that the clearance rate for grand larceny, the most prevalent type of property crime, never surpassed 14%. Grand theft auto fared even worse, fluctuating between 9% and 11% throughout the year.
Overlaying this national reporting data raises additional concerns. If 70% of property crime victims opt not to report incidents, and the arrest rates for those that do are below 15% for theft and less than 11% for auto theft, then the likelihood of being held accountable in a city like New York is almost negligible.
Retail theft further highlights this contradiction. During the same April press conference, Commissioner Tisch announced a 20% drop in retail theft citywide. Yet, in that same quarter, the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce urged the City Council to implement a new bill addressing retail theft while advocating for the continuation of the Retail Theft Task Force established by Tisch’s predecessor—indicating that challenges persist in the business community. Retail theft isn’t categorized separately in the FBI’s reporting system, complicating our understanding of the issue.
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that law enforcement is failing. Many agencies are achieving more with fewer resources, and reductions in violent crime are evident in various cities. My concern lies more in the political narrative shaping perceptions around property crime—often highlighting figures based on a mere fraction of the real situation. When officials celebrate these statistics without acknowledging the vast number of unreported incidents, they selectively present a version of the truth, neglecting countless Americans who were victimized last year but chose not to reach out to the police because they believed it would lead nowhere.
