Key Points

• Bitcoin’s price compression and Bollinger Band indicate that a range expansion may be imminent.

• This week’s initial price weakness might stem from traders reducing risk ahead of Wednesday’s White House update regarding FOMC, crypto policy, and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) is still trading within the range of $117,000 to $120,000, hovering just below $118,000 daily. Some analysts predict a retest of basic support levels between $114,000 and $110,000. While the technology supports such a movement, the upcoming FOMC minutes and the anticipated White House report on U.S. crypto policies and strategic Bitcoin reserves could change this downtrend.

This report is expected to detail how many Bitcoins the U.S. government currently holds, and traders are hopeful that President Trump may push for the establishment of an official strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Alongside comments from the Federal Reserve, quarterly earnings from Metaplatform, Ford, Robinhood, and Microsoft will be released on Wednesday. Economic data regarding non-farm pay, Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), GDP, consumer sentiment, and ISM reports on manufacturing and services are also set to be unveiled.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak regarding the Fed’s interest rate decisions. Presently, CME Group’s FedWatch metrics suggest a 98% chance that central banks will maintain rates within the 4.25% to 4.5% range. Despite mounting pressure from President Trump, Powell seems committed to leaving options open for either hiking or reducing rates based on economic indicators.

Similar to the days leading up to the previous FOMC meeting, crypto traders appear to be cutting down on risk, with many large tokens being sold off today. Data from TRDR indicates that total Bitcoin interest has dipped from $50.58 billion at the Wall Street Opening Bell to $49.58 billion. Additionally, long liquidations in the futures market have surged, with Coinglass reporting $173.8 million in long liquidations over the past 12 hours.

Will the Good News Trigger a Breakout?

In the last three weeks, Bitcoin prices have seen a reduction in intraday volatility by nearly 45% as they fluctuated from daily highs of $4,200 to lows of $2,300.

The Bollinger Band is closely bunched together, indicating Bitcoin’s price compression and a brewing expansion.

This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.