Economic Data Summary for the Presidential Debates
The economy Kamala Harris and Donald Trump debate The vote took place Tuesday night in Philadelphia, a top issue for most Americans and one of Ms. Harris' biggest weaknesses in the polls.
The following is Important economic facts That, under both the Trump administration and the Biden-Harris administration, should influence tonight's debate.
To enable A fair assessment of Trump and Harris' economic performance and policiesWe have tried to remove the effects of the pandemic by removing 2020 and sometimes 2021 from our calculations. This sometimes favored Trump, excluding the massive job losses in 2020, and sometimes favored Biden, excluding the 2021 budget deficit because it includes emergency pandemic relief.
inflation
- Trump's peak inflation rate: 2.85%
- Peak inflation rate under Biden-Harris: 8.98%
This is measured by the year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index.
or, Higher annual inflation rate than any other month.
- Trump's peak annual inflation rate: 6.3% in September 2017
- Biden-Harris annual inflation peak: 16.05% in June 2022
But the pain caused by inflation is not fully captured by peak rates alone. The cumulative effect of inflation Also important is the number of voters in the Biden-Harris administration, measured from February at the start of the term through July of the fourth year, the most recent data available.
- Cumulative Trump Inflation Rate: 5.9%
- Biden-Harris cumulative inflation rate: 19%
of Food Prices This has been a particular sore point for many voters. Again, we measure this from February of each president's first year in office through July of his fourth year in office.
- Trump cumulative food inflation: 6%
- Cumulative food inflation under the Biden-Harris administration: 20.9%
rent It's another focal point of inflation that's weighing on many American households.
- Rent increase under Trump: 12.5%
- Rent increase under a Biden-Harris administration: 22.1%
Finally, inflation can be measured by how much it exceeds the Fed's 2% target.
- Number of months with PCE inflation above 2% under Trump: 5
- Number of months with PCE inflation above 2% under the Biden-Harris Administration: 40
Manufacturing Jobs
- Manufacturing jobs gained under Trump: 414,500
- Manufacturing jobs added by 138,000 under Biden-Harris administration
This measures employment from the previous president's peak to the current administration's peak, which removes the effects of the pandemic and its rebound and gives a more accurate picture of the impact of each administration's policies.
- Manufacturing job growth under Trump: 3.5%
- Manufacturing job growth under a Biden-Harris administration: 1.07%
Employment and wages
The pandemic caused unemployment to spike in 2020. We removed this from our calculations by measuring employment from the peak of the previous president to the peak of that administration. So for Trump, this is measured from the peak of Barack Obama's administration to the peak of Trump's administration. For Biden, this is measured from the peak of Trump's administration to the peak of Biden-Harris' administration.
- Trump job gains: 6.5 million
- Trump job growth: 4.3%
- Biden-Harris job gains: 2.6 million
- Job growth under Biden-Harris: 1.7%
Inflation has severely eaten up wage gains for American workers.Here we measure the average hourly wage of each president from February of their first year in office to July of their fourth year, the latest data for the Biden-Harris administration.
- Trump's wage increase: 6.46%
- Biden-Harris wage growth: 5.17%
If you exclude managers and white-collar workers, the inflation pain becomes even more pronounced. Here are the wage increases for manufacturing and non-managerial workers:
- Trump's wage increase: 6.54%
- Biden-Harris wage growth: 0.00%
Border Crisis and American Jobs
Immigration It's perhaps the only issue in this election that will command as much public attention as inflation and the economy.
- Foreign-born population growth rate under Trump: 2.2%
- Foreign-born population growth rate under a Biden-Harris administration: 12.6%
Much of the job growth under the Biden-Harris administration comes from foreign-born workers. Here we measure job growth for foreign-born workers from the third month of the Trump administration through February, and from the pre-pandemic peak under the Trump administration through the most recent month, which allows us to filter out the effects of the pandemic.
- Foreign-born employment growth under Trump: 7.5%.
- Foreign-born employment growth under a Biden-Harris administration: 14.2%.
We can also measure foreign employment growth in the U.S. as a percentage of total employment, again excluding the pandemic period when foreign employment plummeted.
- Percentage of foreign-born workers in the U.S. workforce under Trump: 17.4%
- Percentage of foreign-born workers in the U.S. workforce under a Biden-Harris administration: 19.6%
Budget deficit
Trump and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), have presented ample evidence that Biden-Harris Administration's Budget Deficit This contributed to runaway inflation. To fairly measure the deficit, we excluded 2020 and 2021, years that were likely heavily affected by the pandemic. Excluding 2020 favors Trump's numbers, while excluding 2021 favors Biden's numbers.
- Trump's average budget deficit 2018-2019: $809 billion
- Biden-Harris Administration average deficit 2022-2023: $1.5 trillion
The budget deficit is perhaps more important as a percentage of the overall economy, so we show the deficit as a percentage of GDP.
- Trump's 2018 budget deficit as a percentage of GDP: 3.8%
- Trump's 2019 deficit as a percentage of GDP: 4.6%
- Biden-Harris Administration's 2022 budget deficit as a percentage of GDP: 5.3%
- Biden-Harris Administration 2023 deficit as a percentage of GDP: 6.2%
Economic growth
of GDP figures heavily distorted by pandemic collapseThe first quarter saw the economy shrink by 2.2%, and the second quarter saw the economy grow by 5.8%. Here are the numbers comparing the first three years of the Trump administration to the first three years of the Biden administration, and also including Biden's numbers excluding the rebound caused by the pandemic.
- Average economic growth rate during Trump's first three years: 2.7%
- Average economic growth rate over the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration: 3.4%
- Average economic growth rate under a Biden-Harris administration in 2021, excluding pandemic recovery: 2.2%
Stock Market and Interest Rates
- Average S&P 500 return during Trump's first three years in the administration: 16.3%
- Average S&P 500 return over the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration: 12.3%
- Highest 30-year mortgage rate under Trump: 4.94%
- Highest 30-year mortgage rate under a Biden-Harris administration: 7.76%
