College football has become much harder to predict in recent years. The SEC, and Alabama in particular, once seemed to have a firm grip on the sport. Now, the list of credible championship contenders is much broader.
That shift was underscored last season when Indiana, a program with a long history of struggles, finished 16-0 and won the national championship.
In 2026, parity appears stronger than ever: eight weeks into the season, no team has clearly separated itself from the pack. NIL deals are often credited with spreading talent around, and the logic makes sense. When schools across the country can pay players, talent may be less concentrated at a handful of programs.
Brooks Austin, known as “The Film Guy,” sees another factor as more influential: the transfer portal. In his view, players’ increased freedom to move between schools has changed college football more than NIL has.
Programs such as Alabama and Georgia can no longer count on keeping highly rated backups on the bench for years. A player in that position may find another school willing to offer a starting role—and comparable compensation.
Austin said NIL has helped create opportunities for talent to spread out, but he believes the ability to transfer is a major part of the story. The issue, he suggested, is not only how much money programs have. It’s also that talented reserves can leave rather than wait for their chance.
He pointed to the 2025 SEC Championship Game, when Georgia was missing several starting offensive linemen and Alabama had multiple defensive-line starters out. Austin contrasted that with Georgia’s 2022 season, before the transfer portal became as prominent. When the Bulldogs lost their starting left tackle, they could turn to former five-star recruit Broderick Jones, who had remained in the program as a backup and was ready to step in.
Austin wondered whether a player of Jones’s caliber would be willing to spend two years waiting for playing time under today’s conditions. NIL and the transfer portal are both helping reshape the sport, but he believes the portal’s role in moving players around is especially significant.
