USC’s Path to the College Football Playoff

The University of Southern California (USC) is positioned well with a current record that could lead to a breakthrough in the College Football Playoff under Lincoln Riley’s leadership.

However, the upcoming schedule? That’s a different matter entirely.

Presently sitting at No. 19 with a 6-1 record, USC seems likely to encounter underdog status in at least three of its remaining matchups. They will face No. 4 Ohio State at home and then go on the road to challenge No. 5 Indiana and No. 12 UCLA.

Moreover, there’s also the looming game against Wisconsin on October 24, which will further test Riley’s capacity to win in different time zones.

While it’s true that USC has won both Big Ten road games this season, having taken down Rutgers and Penn State, a bit of context is necessary. Both of these teams have struggled, holding a combined record of 0-5 in conference play.

So, what exactly has USC demonstrated on these away games?

Considering that it would be nearly impossible for the Trojans to enter the 12-team College Football Playoff (CFP) with three losses—unless they manage a feat similar to Alabama’s in 2025—they likely need to secure victories in at least three out of their four challenging upcoming games.

Here are three potential pathways for USC to clinch a CFP spot, easing some of the tension that has been building around Riley after falling short of the playoffs in his initial four seasons:

The Dominant Route

Imagine the scenario: The Trojans decisively defeat Ohio State at the Coliseum on October 31, completely shifting the narrative surrounding Riley.

Students who previously chanted “Fire Lincoln!” during a less-than-stellar game against Washington may now find themselves echoing “Extend Lincoln!”

This turn of events could follow a victory over Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium, altering the perception that Riley struggles when playing road games in the Big Ten.

With four consecutive wins and a bye week under their belt, the Trojans head into Indiana and manage to just edge out a Hoosiers team that doesn’t appear quite as formidable as their unbeaten squad from last year.

After routing a struggling Maryland team at home the following week, USC would have a CFP spot secured. However, their chase for a first-round bye is even more compelling—especially as it could come against their rivals, UCLA, at the Rose Bowl.

With defensive strategies orchestrated by Gary Patterson, the Trojans hold off the Bruins’ run game and disrupt quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, eventually pulling away for a hard-fought win.

Quarterback Jayden Maiava and his team will walk off the field knowing they’ve captured the city title, living up to the billboards around Southern California that proclaim, “THE TIME IS: NOW.”

With an 11-1 finish, USC would claim a first-round bye in the CFP and be seen as a strong contender for its first national championship since the Pete Carroll era.

The Just-Good-Enough Route

There are numerous ways this scenario could unfold.

For instance, USC could stumble against Wisconsin only to bounce back and sweep their remaining games (which seems a bit unlikely).

They could score a crucial win over Ohio State, then take down Indiana on the road before facing a setback against UCLA, which also sounds improbable.

Alternatively, they could lose to the Buckeyes, defeat Indiana soundly, and then narrowly win against UCLA (though this one feels a bit of a stretch too).

Ultimately, what matters is finishing with just two losses, which would guarantee them a first CFP appearance under Riley.

It seems fair to say that their toughest remaining games, from hardest to easiest, might be Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Washington.

But, why would UCLA present a greater challenge than your typical reigning champions? It’s a rivalry game in the opponent’s territory, featuring a fearless coach who has already put his team in contention for the playoff in Year 1.

Additionally, Indiana has had its fair share of quarterback issues and has shown vulnerability against weaker opponents.

The Skin-of-the-Teeth Route

This scenario will certainly require some external support.

Even though USC will likely face one of the toughest schedules nationwide—without Notre Dame on their nonconference agenda—there is a possibility of making the CFP with three losses.

Imagine if USC ends up with a 9-3 record, their only losses coming from games against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana.

You can almost hear Hunter Yurachek, chair of the CFP selection committee, saying, “We didn’t feel right penalizing a team whose three losses were to top-tier teams.”

There’s also precedent for a three-loss team making it into the CFP. Last season, Alabama reached the playoffs despite two regular-season losses and another in the SEC Championship game.

Seeded at No. 9, they narrowly defeated Oklahoma in the opening round but then faced defeat against Indiana in the semifinals.

But hey, getting in is getting in—Riley and his team would certainly take that.