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Trump Clobbers Harris in Every Swing State on the Economy 

When asked who voters trust to manage the economy, former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in every key battleground state, a CNN poll found Wednesday.

The poll is significant because it found that the economy was the “most important issue” when voters considered voting. In all key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the economy ranked 20 to 30 points higher than other issues.

Seven states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — will determine the president, longtime Democratic consultant Doug Sosnick wrote. The New York TimesIf Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Harris' chances of winning 270 electoral votes will be slim.

Polls show Trump leading Harris in five key battleground states.

  • Arizona: (Trump +15) – Harris 37%, Trump 52%, Neither 11%
  • Georgia: (Trump +4) – Harris 44%, Trump 48%, Neither 8%
  • Michigan: (Trump +5) – Harris 44%, Trump 49%, Neither 7%
  • Nevada: (Trump +16) – Harris 37%, Trump 53%, Neither 9%
  • Pennsylvania: (Trump +8) – Harris 42%, Trump 50%, Neither 8%
  • Wisconsin: (Trump +2) – Harris 45%, Trump 47%, Neither 8%

Public Opinion Poll sampling The survey surveyed 682 voters in Arizona, 617 in Georgia, 708 in Michigan, 626 in Nevada, 789 in Pennsylvania, and 976 in Wisconsin from August 23-29, 2024. Each state had a maximum margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

CNN analysis On Trump's large lead over Harris in battleground states:

Harris's emergence this summer to replace Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has shifted some of the race's dynamics, but others remain intact. The economy, Biden's notable weakness, remains the theme voters choose most often when asked what is important in the presidential election. An average of 39% of voters statewide choose the economy as their top issue, followed by protecting democracy at an average of 25%. But Harris now trails Trump in confidence in his handling of the economy, and by a smaller margin than Biden. In the latest polls, Trump is on average 8 points more trusted than Harris on the economy. ( New York Times/Siena College Poll A survey of the same six states this spring found Trump had a 20-point advantage over Biden, using the same calculations. While Trump maintained a broad advantage in being more trusted to handle immigration, Harris strengthened Biden's lead in being more trusted to handle abortion and reproductive rights, with women in those six states supporting Harris by an average of 27 percentage points on these issues.

In nearly all of these states, voters are more likely to say Trump has a clearer policy plan for solving the country's challenges than Harris (and in Wisconsin and Michigan, voters are split almost evenly on this question), but voters in these battleground states largely say Harris' views and policies are mainstream and Trump's are too extreme.

Wendell Fsebo is a political reporter for Breitbart News and a former war room analyst for the Republican National Committee. He is the author of: The Politics of Slave MoralityFollow Wendell “X” @WendellHusebø or The truth of society @WendellHusebo.

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