Vice President Kamala Harris has a lot of work to do if she wants to win back the hard-won Hispanic support of former President Donald Trump, but experts say the Hispanic base is now “back in the mix” for Democrats.
Trump maintains strong leads among Latinos, primarily on key issues like the border crisis and inflation, two issues that have dogged the Biden-Harris administration. With Harris at the top of the presidential field, the voting bloc will be at stake, but experts say the vice president needs to actually speak out on the “issues” that matter most to Latinos to regain credibility ahead of November. (Related article: Harris leads Trump among key battleground states, but many voters still undecided: poll)
“This political demographic, like the rest of the political demographic, is once again in the spotlight with the switch in nominations from President Biden to Vice President Harris,” Len Foxwell, a Maryland-based Democratic strategist, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That said, she's going to have to give this job her all.”
US President Donald Trump arrives to attend a roundtable with Latino supporters at the Arizona Grand Resort & Spa in Phoenix, Arizona on September 14, 2020. (Brendan Smiarowski/AFP) (Brendan Smiarowski/AFP via Getty Images)
“I think she has an opportunity to reset the debate,” Foxwell told DCNF. “I think the change in the top Democratic candidates opens a window for the vice president to make inroads with this base that maybe President Biden didn't have. But it's a window, and once a window opens, a window closes.”
Sixty percent of Latinos said the cost of living and inflation are their top priorities heading into November, while 38% said jobs and the economy are most important and 29% said the cost of housing. According to According to a Hispanic Federation/BSP Research poll conducted Aug. 6-11, immigration was also a top priority for Latino voters, with 21% citing issues at the U.S.-Mexico border and 20% saying immigration reform for “immigrants already living here” was a priority.
At the same time, Latinos trust Trump more than Harris on the economy and immigration issues. According to According to an August 28 ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump is trailing Harris by six points on both the economy and inflation, and by two points on the “immigration situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.”
“If you're a Hispanic citizen and you have the right to vote, there's a good chance you're really upset about what Harris has done to the country over the last three and a half years,” John McLaughlin, a pollster for the Trump campaign and CEO of McLaughlin and Associates, told DCNF. “They're really upset that illegal immigrants are coming here and getting free services that our taxpayer money pays for, free state-paid tuition, and a lot of tax-funded benefits that legal immigrants have sacrificed. They're really upset, so Harris has a lot of explaining to do.”
“Inflation, the border crisis and rampant crime are serious issues that affect the Latino community and all communities across the country,” Jaime Flores, Hispanic outreach director for the Republican National Committee, told DCNF. “President Trump's message of unity everywhere he goes is a call for all of us to come together to Make Our Country Great Again, no matter what language we speak or what ethnicity we belong to.”
Before Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris, a majority of Latino Republicans, 86%, said they were likely to vote in November. According to According to a July Axios Vibes/Harris poll, only 71% of Latino Democrats and 54% of Latino independents expressed the same enthusiasm. (RELATED: 'A very tough race': Democratic pollster sounds warning about Harris' honeymoon)
But since Harris and her lieutenant governor, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, took office, Latino Democrats and Latino Republicans are roughly equal in number, with 83% and 84%, respectively, saying they are very likely to vote. According to According to an Aug. 20 Axios Vibes/Harris poll, unaffiliated Latino voters remain unaffected by the vote count change, with only 52% saying they will vote in November.
“I think it's important to recognize that sometimes it's a party issue, sometimes it's a candidate issue,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told DCNF. “Biden had issues, but that was because he was a Democrat. In this case it's a Democratic issue. The Democrats' issues came about because they were perceived to be stewards of the economy and the economy was perceived as not working for the people. Latinos just reacted accordingly.”
Large swaths of Latino voters in battleground states are unconvinced by either candidate. In Arizona, Harris has 43% support among Hispanic voters, an 18-point lead over the former president's 25%. According to According to an Aug. 22 TelevisaUnivision/Media Predict poll. (Related article: Trump and Harris in close race in battleground states: poll)
Despite Harris' lead, polls show that nearly a third of Hispanic voters are still undecided about who they will ultimately vote for in November's election.
“States with large Hispanic populations like Nevada and Arizona are at stake, and these battleground states could collectively determine the outcome of the election,” Foxwell told DCNF. “This race will be the center of much attention in the fall.”
“Latinos are to Democrats what suburban dads are to Republicans,” Chand told DCNF, “and even more so to Democrats because Latinos are essential to the Democratic voting coalition. And Latinos are more sensitive to these issues, even within the general constituency, where everyone is aware of these economic issues.”
Two Democratic PACs, Priorities USA Actions and Somos Votantes PACrecently spearheaded a bilingual ad campaign called “The Margins Project” to entice Latino voters to vote for Harris in November, with messaging focused on Harris' policy record on the economy, immigration and abortion. According to To Politico.
“I believe victory will come not only to parties and campaigns that regularly reach out to and target this constituency, but also to campaigns that speak to issues in ways that resonate with Latino voters,” Foxwell told DCNF. “Like other voters, Latinos are concerned about rising prices of goods and services, their inability to purchase a home or move up from their first home to an upgraded home, they are concerned about their relatively high tax burden, and they are concerned about the border crisis.”
“To the credit of legal immigrants who have come through our system, not just Hispanics, they haven't been fooled by this,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “They've rejected Harris and are supporting President Trump, which is why this race is still leading in many battleground states.”
The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment from the DCNF.
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