Trump’s Upcoming Meeting with Putin on Ukraine

President Trump is set to hold talks with Vladimir Putin of Russia this Friday, focusing on the ongoing war in Ukraine and potential routes toward resolving the conflict.

Originally, Trump intended to impose significant secondary sanctions on August 8, but now he seems to be hoping for some sort of agreement. However, given Putin’s long-standing and open declaration regarding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s role in the war, Trump might find himself disappointed.

Putin has consistently labeled Zelensky as an illegitimate leader, despite the fact that Zelensky won a fair election in 2019, as stipulated by the Ukrainian constitution. It’s worth noting that elections are usually suspended during wartime, which further complicates the matter. Ironically, while Zelensky challenges his legitimacy, Putin himself has faced accusations of conducting orchestrated elections in 2024.

Putin’s refusal to engage officially with Zelensky sends a clear message about his stance. If Zelensky were to attend the Alaska Summit, any agreements reached would seem to lack credibility without Putin’s endorsement, though that seems unlikely.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned on August 4 that Putin could potentially meet with Zelensky after some preparatory discussions. While this seems like a concession, it feels somewhat insincere, especially since Putin still insists on Ukraine’s capitulation, which raises questions about any real willingness to negotiate.

A recent article from Russian state media hinted at a much darker ambition: the complete erasure of Ukraine. The headline “There is no other option. No one should live in Ukraine,” seems to lay bare the genocidal intentions that may be driving Kremlin policy. With such extreme positions, it becomes increasingly difficult to see any genuine negotiation or compromise occurring.

In essence, it appears that negotiating in good faith is not on Putin’s agenda, regardless of where he might be. Any potential agreement would require significant pressure on him to alter his approach. Previous efforts—like providing Ukraine with military support—have shown some success in countering Russian advances.

The Russian elite are also acutely aware of the pressures facing their country under Putin’s leadership. The stark reality is that they must choose: support Russia or support Putin. Opting for the latter risks dragging Russia down with him.

Janus Bugazisky, a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, suggests that Russia may be approaching a crisis point. He notes that officials seem increasingly paranoid about the future, which could indicate a deeper recognition of the unfolding negative trends within the country.

Bugazisky highlights three key concerns troubling Russian officials: the war’s potential loss, economic decline, and national fragmentation, all of which seem imminent.

Despite what Putin, Peskov, and other Kremlin spokespersons may assert—that everything is fine regarding the war, the economy, and national unity—the reality paints a different picture. Russia has suffered significant military losses and is growing reliant on nations like North Korea for supplies. Meanwhile, the militarization of the economy is beginning to weigh heavily on the consumer sector.

Putin’s governance is increasingly reminiscent of Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union, which ultimately faced a dramatic downfall.

If Zelensky, Trump, and Putin do meet, Ukrainian and U.S. leaders should remain aware that as long as Ukraine maintains U.S. support, they hold a far stronger position than Putin.