A national poll released ahead of Thursday’s CNN-hosted 2024 presidential debate gives former President Trump a four percentage point lead over President Biden.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday found that 48% of voters would vote for Republican Trump and 44% would vote for Democrat Biden if the presidential election were held on the same day. This contrasts with an April New York Times/Siena College poll in which Trump had a slight lead over Biden by 1 percentage point.
Asked whether Biden should remain the Democratic nominee, 61% said there should be another Democratic candidate and 33% said Biden should stay on, while 54% said there should be another Republican candidate and 41% thought Trump should stay on.
The poll found that 26% of black voters said they would support Trump in 2024. While 65% of black voters said they would support Biden, Trump’s approval rating has risen significantly since 2020.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted June 17-20, 2020, only 5% of registered black voters said they supported Trump, while 79% said they supported Biden.
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Notably, as of now, 68% of voters nationwide say they are dissatisfied with President Trump’s response to the protests and riots following the death of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis.
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden by 4 percentage points, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. (Getty Images)
The latest poll was conducted June 20-25, 2024, in English and Spanish via mobile and landline phones among 1,226 registered voters nationwide, including 991 who completed the entire survey.
They were also asked whether they thought Biden and Trump were too old to be effective as president, with 68% saying Biden was too old and 39% saying Trump was too old.
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Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on June 22, 2024. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
A poll conducted after Trump’s conviction in a hush-money lawsuit brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg found that only 11% of voters were more likely to support Trump after his conviction, and only 19% were less likely to support him. A majority, 68%, said Trump’s hush-money conviction had no effect on whether they supported him.
Respondents who agreed that the charges against Trump were primarily politically motivated were 2 percentage points more likely to vote than those who thought Trump was indicted primarily because prosecutors believed he committed a crime. A majority, 55 percent, agreed that Trump should not receive a prison sentence in the hush money case, and 37 percent said he should remain in prison.
With just over four months until Election Day, Thursday’s debate holds a rare chance of changing the trajectory of the campaign for both candidates.
President Biden speaks at an event marking the 12th anniversary of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program at the White House in Washington, DC on June 18, 2024. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Trump and Biden have not shared the same stage or even spoken since their last debate, just weeks before the 2020 presidential election, and Trump did not attend Biden’s inauguration.
Thursday’s broadcast on CNN will be the earliest general election debate in history and the first televised presidential general election debate hosted by a single news organization since the two sides abandoned the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which has hosted all debates since 1988.
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According to the network’s rules, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not meet the qualifications.
To avoid a repeat of the chaotic 2020 showdown, Biden has insisted, and Trump has agreed, that the debate be held without an audience and that networks be allowed to mute the candidates’ microphones when it’s not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks, also a departure from modern practice. The candidates have agreed not to consult with staff or others while the cameras are off.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
