President-elect Trump has threatened bellicose and friendly relations with some world dictators as he seeks to dismantle the growing alliance between America's adversaries China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. It is expected that a combined trademark will be developed.
Given President Trump's impulsive approach to international relations and likely disagreements among his advisers, whether that equates to effective policy remains an open question.
The president-elect is hostile to European allies and NATO, accusing them of being too reliant on the United States for military aid, and aligning himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. We pride ourselves on our personal intimacy.
“We're going to have a very good relationship. There's a reason why they want to like us. There's a big reason,” Trump told Putin while on the campaign trail in Arizona in late October. Referring to Mr. Xi and Mr. Kim, he said: Break up their alliance.
“Look at what these stupid people have done. They allowed Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, etc. to come together en masse. This is unthinkable,” he said.
This grouping of countries has been expressed in the field of foreign policy as the “Axis of Aggressors'', “Axis of Turbulence'', and “CRINK'' (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea).
The Ukraine war served to accelerate these relationships, with Putin turning to Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran for weapons funding and equipment, and each country seeking economic, military, and political returns in return. There is.
Foreign policy experts say CRINK countries are not natural allies and still have many conflicting national interests. But unity against American hegemony on the world stage is a powerful force.
“I believe the relationship between these parties is deeper and more durable than many believe, and as such, these leaders likely intend to pocket concessions from the United States. “However, it will not fundamentally change the scope of cooperation with each other,” said Andrea Kendall Taylor, senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
“Trump is approaching each one bilaterally without the strong support of allies. They are acting as a collective in many ways, and we are more isolated and alone without allies.” “The balance of power actually shifts to them,” she added.
Supporters of U.S. support in Ukraine's fight against Russian aggression argue that this is the best way to counter the deepening ties between these adversaries.
“CRINK is watching our actions. …This is a threat to all of us, and the best way to confront CRINK is to help Ukraine achieve victory.” George W. said David Kramer, executive director of the Bush Institute and former assistant secretary of state for Europe. Eurasian problem.
And these Ukraine hardliners are now trying to convince President Trump that the best way to break away from Biden policy is to ensure that Kiev defeats Moscow.
President Biden has been credited with uniting allies in Europe and Asia in arming Ukraine and isolating Russia diplomatically and economically, but critics say the U.S. is concerned about escalation with President Putin. It points out that it is withholding from Kiev the tools it needs to defeat Russia.
“This is an opportunity for the incoming Trump administration to stand in stark contrast to the current Biden administration, which supports Ukraine's victory. That's something the Biden administration has never clearly stated. “We can help achieve this,” Kramer said.
“Europe can and should do more,” he added, a common refrain among Mr. Trump and his supporters.
However, President Trump has expressed his desire to help Ukraine achieve a decisive victory over Russia, and that some of his top aides, including Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and Vice President-elect J.D. He refused to make any promises during his election campaign. someone slandered Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is ejected Concerns about President Putin's nuclear threator argued that it was important to help protect Kiev's sovereignty not a worthy cause.
Musk participated in a phone conversation between Trump and Zelensky on Wednesday. president of ukraine wrote on social platform XMusk said he had an “excellent” phone conversation with Trump and that they “agreed to maintain a close dialogue and continue to work together.” America's strong and steadfast leadership is essential to the world and a just peace. ”
But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, an outlier in Europe for his close ties to President Vladimir Putin, predicted that under the Trump administration the United States would “withdraw from this war.” Prime Minister Orbán visited President Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida in July, and President Trump mentioned the Hungarian leader's support during a debate with Vice President Harris in September.
“Look, Viktor Orban said it: The most respected and most feared person is Donald Trump,” Trump said during the debate, defending his position among world leaders.
Robert O'Brien, Trump's national security adviser from 2019 to 2021, described Trump's unpredictability as a strategy to keep Russia off balance.
In an article published in Foreign Affairs magazine over the summer, O'Brien said President Trump wanted a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine that would “end the killings and keep Ukraine safe.” I said that.
He called on Europe to allow Kiev to join the European Union “immediately” and to fund lethal U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The strategy is part of confronting what he called an “axis of anti-American authoritarian states,” referring to Russia, China and Iran. This article was published before North Korea ramped up its support for Russia, sending thousands of troops into the fight.
This global realignment is accompanied by the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. Putin and Xi control major stockpiles, while Kim and Iranian leaders are pursuing nuclear weapons programs with ambitions to become a nuclear power.
The United States is spending billions of dollars to modernize its nuclear triad for continued deterrence, raising concerns among arms control advocates of a new nuclear arms race.
Darryl Kimball, executive director of the nonpartisan Arms Control Association, said Trump supporters, including O'Brien, some Republican senators and conservative think tanks, are calling for a resumption of nuclear weapons testing, increased production and expanded deployment. It sounded the alarm.
“This is what we expect a lot of people on the Hill are talking about, and a lot of people in the Trump administration are thinking about, but there are tough questions to ask them. And the other thing is, does President Trump want this?'' Kimball asked.
President Trump has repeatedly warned that the escalating wars in Europe and the Middle East are leading to World War III or nuclear “annihilation.”
During his first administration, President Trump talked about renegotiating the New START treaty, which governs arms control between the United States and Russia, to include China, but Beijing resisted this. The treaty expires in 2026.
However, Kimball also noted that the United States is unlikely to be able to significantly address the nuclear threat when it comes to Russia without consultation and cooperation with major allies such as Europe and NATO. Regarding North Korea and China, South Korea and Japan. And when it comes to Iran, Israel.
“President Trump is not going to do a blank slate to make a deal with this rogue dictator or that rogue dictator. There will be some real-world constraints on what he can do,” he said. Said. Where they will ultimately apply remains to be seen. ”
