Former Israeli Ambassador Warns Iran Deal May Be ‘Fatal’ for Israel

Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador, has voiced his concerns regarding the recent Iran deal, labeling its implications as potentially “fatal” for Israel’s security. He pointed out that the agreement does not adequately address critical issues including the halt of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, their ballistic missile programs, and the ongoing state-sponsored terrorism. Oren emphasized his “great concern” about the unresolved matters surrounding nuclear stockpiles and control over the vital Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump administration has indicated a plan to sustain its military presence in the Middle East, even in light of the new agreement with Iran, which highlights persistent mistrust between Washington and Tehran as they enter a 60-day period of negotiations. A senior U.S. official mentioned during a conference call that the current military forces would remain unchanged during this period, noting, “We hope to reduce them, but that hasn’t happened yet.”

“The agreement suggests a reduction in military forces based on the final agreement,” the official noted. Notably, President Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf have already signed the memorandum of understanding, with further details expected to be released within the next couple of days. A formal signing ceremony is planned for later this week.

This decision means the Pentagon will keep approximately 50,000 troops stationed across the Middle East, marking one of the largest U.S. military concentrations in the region in over 20 years. Tracking data indicates that at least two aircraft carrier strike groups remain active within U.S. Central Command’s area.

Officials have made it clear that any sanctions relief or asset releases will hinge not only on promises from Iran but also on verification of their compliance. One senior official acknowledged that the two nations are at the nascent stages of “confidence-building.” This lack of trust is also apparent in the differing explanations about the deal from both the U.S. and Iranian officials.

White House representatives confirmed that no Iranian assets have been unfrozen and clarified that any sanctions relief would depend on Iran’s future actions during negotiations.

Contrasting narratives have emerged, with Iranian officials asserting that the framework sets the stage for the release of approximately $24 billion in frozen funds and broader economic relief, while U.S. officials emphasized that these funds have not been released.

Despite President Trump suggesting the deal could signify a turning point in U.S.-Iran relations, the memorandum is relatively limited. The framework prolongs the ceasefire, opens a 60-day negotiation period, and seeks to rejuvenate the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil and natural gas shipments.

Reopening this strait may provide immediate economic benefits. Officials indicated that while the memorandum includes provisions for lifting blockades and opening the waterway, it may take some time for commercial shipping to stabilize as navigational issues are resolved and confidence in the shipping route is restored.

In addition to keeping the strait accessible during the negotiation window, expectations are that shipping volumes will rise significantly soon, alleviating pressures on global energy markets. The deal aims to create a structure where Iran could ultimately gain sanctions relief and improved access to the global economy, in exchange for credible commitments to halt the advancement of its nuclear program and reduce its influence on terrorism and regional instability.

As the possibility of increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz looms, global market responses are already being observed, with oil prices dipping as traders speculate that this key energy route may soon resume normal operations.