There are two wars that President Trump naturally wants to end.
Disputes in the Middle East are actually easy to resolve in two ways.
And who thought who could say that?
For that war to end, Trump must put pressure on Hamas' main supporters, Qatar and Iran, to make sure Hamas is isolated on its own.
However, the war in Ukraine is a much more difficult prospect to resolve.
This week, the president spoke with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky.
Trump is, of course, worried about a fatal loss of life on both sides, on a human level.
However, the way to resolve the conflict is not clear.
Russia occupy not only Crimea but also a vast strip of eastern Ukraine.
Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, it was the Ukrainians' dream that they could free the land.
I saw their short success with my own eyes.
“Unrealistic Purpose”
However, the spring attacks of 2023 failed, and the supply of weapons from the west was fragmented and dripped onto them.
The outcome of that decision can be seen in a standstill in conflict.
Therefore, while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegses did not issue a statement of principles, this week he told Europeans that the full-scale liberation of Ukraine's Russian occupying territories was a “unrealistic purpose.” It's one of the reality when I spoke.
That's a very unfortunate fact, but it's still true.
Apart from full-scale, fully armed, Western-supported counterattacks, it is extremely difficult to see how Ukrainians can reclaim all the territory under Russian occupation.
In parts of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, this includes filming carefully filled territory with people supporting Russia, who may not want to return to Ukraine's rule.
Therefore, the war could end with an agreement that opens up Ukraine.
And here, the danger lies not only for peace agreements, but for the leadership of Ukraine.
A transaction that involves abandoning Ukrainian territory would be extremely harmful to Zelensky.
Even a square mile of Ukrainian territory is effectively handed over to Russia. It is presented as Putin's victory.
And he was stolen more.
President Putin knows from an early stage in the conflict that he failed his dream of gobbling all his neighbors.
But if he has enough Ukraine, he could still sell this as a “winner” to the Russian people.
It's not that he needs their support.
Dictators like him are very good at pretending to be people in places like Saddam Hussein who get a 102% approval rating.
Bids to participate in NATO
It is Zelensky who needs a clearer victory.
And that's where things get really, really tricky.
Ukraine has long wanted to join NATO to obtain the security guarantees that NATO membership brings.
Of course, this was one of the false reasons why Putin and his apologies in the West often cited as one of the triggers of conflict.
Not only because Putin is lying, but also because dictators tend to do so, if Putin wants to keep NATO away from his borders, he is one of the biggest miscalculations of his life. I made it.
After all, since his invasion, countries have lined up to join NATO, particularly Sweden and Finland.
Thus, NATO has actually grown in its membership since the alleged claims that Putin had tried to push it from his borders.
The problem for Ukrainians is that it is very difficult to see how NATO welcomes Ukraine into the fold.
Not only is it likely that some NATO members (especially Hungary) will reject such a move, but if Ukraine joins NATO, all NATO members (including the US) will be subject to Article 5 “For all.” To all, for all, for the rules that all NATO countries are obligated to take part in the fight if Ukraine must fight again.
And few countries never mind, they can't sign up for a future full-scale war with Russia.
And people are wondering what security Trump or someone else can give to Zelensky guarantees.
Again, it's very difficult to see.
As Zelensky says, as all Ukrainians know, his country's experience is that it is not worth the paper with security guarantees written on it.
Security Guarantee
When Ukraine abandoned its nuclear weapons in the 1990s, security guarantees were granted by three countries known as the Budapest Memorandum of Understanding: the United States, the UK and Russia.
The treaty was signed on behalf of the United States by then President Bill Clinton.
But where was the 2022 warranty when Ukraine was invaded?
It was drifting – and forgotten as a huge number of words from the Clinton administration.
The piece of paper meant virtually nothing.
So why does Zelensky agree to the security guarantees given to him by another US president, and even Donald Trump?
Especially considering that when Trump leaves his job a few years from now, successors like Biden could turn to ignore his security guarantees.
If someone thinks Putin isn't going to stay hungry, then they don't understand Putin's desires.
It can provide international peacekeeping forces.
Again, international peacekeeping forces from Bosnia to Lebanon were rarely able to maintain peace.
The Sri Lankans and French people wouldn't want the military to just stand up and fight less, just like America.
This is where Trump has to box something very special out of the box, just like Gaza last week.
He is right that the fight must stop.
But finding a way to actually stop is one of the great tests of his presidency.
