One Year After National Guard Deployment
One year ago, the National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C. The Trump administration has pointed to a decline in crime rates, asserting that its “Safe and Beautiful” initiative is effectively working to reduce violent crime.
However, the Center for American Progress (CAP), a progressive think tank, suggests the narrative might be more complex. They argue that the statistics tell a different story.
CAP’s analysis indicates that violent crime and homicide rates were already decreasing by significant margins—14% and 22%, respectively—across the eleven cities affected prior to the deployment. Interestingly, except for Memphis, no substantial changes were tied to incidents in Los Angeles or Washington, D.C. In Memphis, the brief decline in crime was reversed within two months.
It’s worth noting a caution from CAP: the deployment overlapped with other federal and immigration enforcement efforts. This complicates their statistical model, making it difficult to separate the Guard’s impact from forces that were already in play. This overlap, they argue, makes their “no effect” conclusion a more conservative outcome.
Chandler Hall, one of the study’s authors, commented: “Both may be true. Violent crime and homicide in the District are steadily declining. But what we aimed to reveal is whether the deployments and the tactics employed by the president to tackle crime have any supporting evidence. We found none.”
In terms of what might be working, Hall suggested that the visible presence of the Guard may have deterred some opportunistic crimes, such as petty theft, where having guards in sight could intimidate potential offenders.
Meanwhile, reports from the U.S. Marshals Service highlighted over 16,000 arrests in the first year of deployment, which included a number of violent offenders and drug-related arrests. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro noted a 67% increase in prosecutions since she came into the D.C. role.
In a report issued under their “Advancing Racial Equity and Justice” initiative, CAP urged policymakers to dismiss the administration’s claims about public safety, arguing that the primary purpose of the deployment was never about deterring crime.
In response, Trump labeled Hall’s findings as “another radical left fraud,” attributing the funding of CAP to notable figures and organizations, including George Soros and major tech companies, claiming an intent to pursue prosecution against some of those contributors.
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser has previously acknowledged that the National Guard’s presence has contributed to reducing crime. She even signed an executive order advocating for cooperation with federal authorities.
However, marking a year since the surge commenced, Bowser recently expressed concerns about the ongoing presence of guards and immigration enforcement, deeming it “problematic,” and credited D.C.’s own emergency operations for the crime reduction.
The deployment in D.C. is set to continue until 2029, alongside a budget request to allocate $3 billion specifically aimed at combating violent crime in cities like D.C. and Memphis, indicating they could serve as models for broader implementation.
