Former President Donald Trump has several paths to the White House with only weeks left until Election Day.
Before looking at the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Trump could theoretically have won 219 electoral votes based on states he is already projected to win. It will be election night. At the same time, Harris is believed to have received 226 votes before taking swing states into account. Here are some of the steps President Trump could take.
Trump's easiest path: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
Trump's easiest path to victory includes three battleground states on the East Coast: Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump will receive exactly 270 votes in these three states, ensuring his re-election to a second term.
This appears to be the easiest path for President Trump, given that North Carolina and Georgia, two of which have historically favored Republicans, are just three states. North Carolina is the only swing state that supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020, and has voted Republican in five of the past six presidential elections. The same is true for Georgia. Georgia was historically a red state until it became a blue state for the first time in 2020 this millennium.
As of Monday, President Trump held Both Georgia and North Carolina have a 0.5 percentage point lead in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. If each state gets the 16 electors it offers, it would theoretically get 251 electors. From there, only Pennsylvania would be needed to reach the 270 threshold.
As of Monday afternoon, Mr. Trump was leading Pennsylvania by just 0.3 percentage points, according to the RCP polling average.
Passes 2 and 3: Either Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan or Wisconsin.
If Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina but loses Pennsylvania, these secondary channels will come into play. The Keystone State appears crucial to Harris' victory, but it won't make or break Trump.
Trump could still win even if he won Arizona's 11 electors and Wisconsin's 10 electors or Michigan's 15 electors. Trump would win 272 electoral votes in Arizona and Wisconsin, and would win the White House with 277 electoral votes in Michigan but not Wisconsin.
The RCP average gives Trump a 1% lead in Arizona and 0.9% in Michigan, but Harris has a 0.3% lead in Wisconsin.
Like North Carolina and Georgia, Arizona has voted for Republican candidates in five of the past six presidential elections. The only time this century that voters voted Democratic was in 2020, when President Joe Biden narrowly won by 0.3 points. Meanwhile, Michigan and Wisconsin regularly voted for Democrats until turning red in 2016, and each voted for Biden in 2020.
Pass 4: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada
Trump won North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020, but the state's Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC), faces potential obstacles. He has been embroiled in a scandal over his alleged behavior on an adult site.
robinson trail The latest Emerson College/NextStar Media poll shows Attorney General Josh Stein (Democrat) with a 14-point lead, which could be a drag on the election. Even if North Carolina were to go to Harris, Trump could lose both Wisconsin and Michigan and still win the White House.
Trump received 271 electoral votes in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. He would also win at either Wisconsin or Michigan instead of Nevada or Arizona. Trump currently holds a 0.2 percentage point lead in Nevada, according to RCP Average.
Pass 5: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin
Even if Harris wins both Pennsylvania and North Carolina, Trump could still break the 270 threshold with other Rust Belt states, Arizona and Georgia. He would receive 271 electoral votes in these four battleground states.
Convert RCP average to electoral map
If RCP's polling averages accurately reflect racial conditions and are applied to electoral maps, Trump would win by a landslide in every battleground state except Wisconsin. In this scenario, the former president would have received 302 electoral votes.
