Iran’s Oil Infrastructure at Risk of Catastrophic Failure

President Trump stated on Sunday that Iran’s oil infrastructure is at risk of blowing up within about three days, attributing this to mechanical failures worsened by the U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels.

He explained, “When you have a pipeline carrying an enormous amount of oil, and, for some reason, it has to be shut down — like no ships to load the oil due to the blockade — it can lead to an explosion, a mechanical failure underground.” He added, “They estimate it’s only a matter of three days before it might explode, and rebuilding it to its original form would be nearly impossible.”

Experts warn that the U.S. naval blockade could prompt Iran to close its oil fields by April 29, risking significant, potentially long-term harm to its oil production capabilities.

As Iran ceases exports, the government is left with no option but to redirect oil into onshore tanks, which may lead to a shortage of storage capacity.

The Critical Threats Project from the American Enterprise Institute, along with the UK’s Energy Aspects, anticipate that Iran’s storage will reach capacity in less than a week.

Annika Ganzefeld, who manages Middle East affairs for AEI’s Critical Threats Project, remarked earlier, “Once the tanks are full, they will have to shut down the fields. This could cause long-term damage.” A complete halt in oil production could jeopardize the integrity of fuel depots and complicate the process of restarting operations, making it tough to return to previous production levels.

This unfolding situation could severely impact an already fragile Iranian economy.

Moreover, it could also result in increased prices for fuels worldwide, which is particularly concerning given the ongoing 12 million barrels per day shortfall tied to the current war.

Some analysts suggest that Iran might attempt to limit production reductions in the upcoming weeks or could use tankers along the coast for temporary storage solutions.

For a country producing approximately 2 million barrels a day, this would be merely a stopgap measure.

Energy advisory firm FGE NextantECA estimates that Iran has around 122 million barrels of available storage, but the time before it has to stop production could be less than seven weeks.