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Trump up 25 points with Michigan independents, as IVF proposal proves potent

A new poll from the Wolverine State shows independent voters leaning toward Donald Trump while baby boom policy proposals are gaining popularity among battleground state voters.

The survey of 931 voters conducted by CoEfficiency from Sept. 4 to 6 found that the former president resonated with Michigan independents, garnering support from 55% compared to just 30% for Vice President Kamala Harris.

This momentum has led to a tight race for Michigan's 15 electoral votes, with each candidate receiving 47% of the vote.


Last week, Trump memorabilia was displayed on the front lawn of a home in Beverly Hills, Michigan. Reuters

One reason for Trump's surge among independents in this poll appears to be his new position on IVF.

“Under a Trump administration, the government will pay, or insurance companies will be required to pay, all costs associated with IVF treatment. We want more babies, to say the least. And for the same reason, we will also allow parents of newborns to deduct major newborn expenses from their taxes,” Trump said in Michigan last month.

It could cost up to $7 billion in taxpayer money, but Michigan voters appear to support Trump's plan, which polls have depicted as requiring insurance to cover infertility testing, treatments and procedures, including in vitro fertilization, to help families struggling to have children.

Twenty-seven percent of voters said this would make them more likely to support his campaign in the 2024 presidential election, while 17% said it would make them less likely.

The difference is even starker among super-voters who participated in the past four general elections: 31% of them said they would be more likely to vote for Trump given their IVF plans, while 17% said they were not interested.

Among women, 26% are more inclined to support Trump because of his support for IVF subsidies, which are already mandatory in 13 states, while 15% oppose him — a significant 11-point difference given Harris' 56%-36% lead among women.


A man stands among various signs supporting Donald Trump and Mothers for Liberty and opposing Communism on a rural property in Fountain, Michigan, filled with abandoned cars and American flags.
In Michigan, Trump's IVF proposal made 26% of women more likely to vote for him. web

Trump's IVF proposal is +14 among independents, with 29% saying they would be more likely to vote for him based on it, +11 among Protestants, and +9 among Catholics.

But Jewish voters were cool to the IVF program, with 33% saying it would make them less likely to vote for the former president, and just 11% opposed.

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