The Reality of U.S.-China Relations
In today’s political climate, there’s little agreement on many issues, but China stands out as a common concern. Almost every national security expert deems it the biggest geopolitical challenge for the United States. This raises questions: how can we coexist without becoming overly reliant on one another? How can we compete without escalation? And, how do we protect American businesses and consumers while China operates under its own set of rules?
When a meeting was set up between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, China quickly warned about restricting access to U.S. rare earth minerals. The U.S. countered with threats of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.
This reaction bewildered many Americans. Why would China act so provocatively after agreeing to meet? Certainly, they’re aware that Trump would have a strong response. Xi has been in power for a long time, showing no sign of changing course.
U.S. Response and China’s Long Game
On one hand, Trump has nearly a year left in his term. But China has always played the long game—it seems they think Americans aren’t willing to endure prolonged confrontations. There’s a belief that patience will win the day, or perhaps it’s overvalued as a virtue. However, it’s interesting how swiftly this administration can act when needed.
Evidence of the Trump administration’s resolve can be seen in its handling of conflicts worldwide, like the significant peace agreement in the Middle East. They’ve employed tariffs as a tool to boost U.S. revenue and level the trade playing field, all while encouraging domestic manufacturing.
The U.S. has redefined its stance towards countries like Venezuela and reoriented its relationships with Colombia, Israel, and various Arab states, addressing challenges such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions—all within a year.
Yet, there are still lingering issues, particularly in Eastern Europe, and let’s not forget the looming trade disagreements with China. While the U.S. sought to isolate Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, China was simultaneously providing support to Russia.
Addressing China’s Influence
The ongoing focus should be on stopping Russia’s aggressions and securing a trade agreement with China that acknowledges the persistent reality of China’s Communist Party structure.
Even if Xi were to step down, there aren’t term limits like in the U.S.—leaders can stay in power indefinitely, which is a fundamental part of the Communist Party’s strategy. This doesn’t change, even as we negotiate from a position of strength.
Recent reports hint at possible weakenings in Xi’s hold due to internal party dissensions, but history shows such claims are often exaggerated. If Xi were to be replaced, the next leader is likely to maintain authoritarian policies that have characterized China for years.
Strategic Insights
China sees time and the democratic system as potentially beneficial to their strategy. We need to make it clear that Trump’s insistence on swift action against China’s tactics isn’t a sign of weakness; in fact, it poses a significant threat to their interests.
The approach to China goes beyond tariffs; it also covers technological competition, where the next global struggle for dominance will unfold.
Understanding that China’s control over technologies like communications and AI threatens U.S. national security, the Trump administration is taking concrete steps to diminish China’s influence.
For instance, the Justice Department is actively working against Huawei—tied to the Communist Party—which leads in global telecommunications and has raised concerns due to security vulnerabilities found by U.S. agencies.
To create a level playing field, the administration is collaborating with U.S. intelligence to approve mergers that can foster competition and innovation, although not without opposition based on political biases rather than national security considerations.
When Trump identified a national security issue regarding computer chips, he made the unconventional move to collaborate with Intel. These are certainly not traditional times, and the nature of conflict is changing.
Next Steps
There’s still much to accomplish concerning China, leading the President and his team to seek dialogue with them. Potential strategies might include tightening export controls on sensitive technologies and enhancing military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s ambitions.
Beijing has been observing as Trump reinvigorates NATO, addresses multiple conflicts, and balances trade pressures. Their strategy appears to prioritize patience, preferring power and peace when necessary.
Let’s not confuse diplomacy with weakness. Trump aims for peace while ensuring fair competition, deterring intellectual property theft, and confronting currency manipulation—all even with opponents present.
It’s essential for China to recognize that while a democracy may limit an individual’s term, it does not restrict the pace of actions needed to preserve that democracy.
