US-Israel-Lebanon Agreement and Its Implications

The recent deal between the Trump administration and Lebanon regarding Israel has significant connections to its agreement with Iran. U.S. officials have indicated that this could be a crucial test of whether the new arrangement can help avoid a regional war and prevent U.S. involvement in another potential conflict.

This agreement permits the Israel Defense Forces to maintain their presence in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese army can handle the threats posed by the group. Officials believe this provision enhances Beirut’s sovereignty, aligning with the earlier memorandum of understanding.

“The commitment is towards a sovereign Lebanon free from domestic threats by Hezbollah, and where Hezbollah cannot use southern Lebanon to threaten its neighbors,” an official stated.

Now, the pressing challenge is whether the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) can successfully disarm Hezbollah and dismantle the organization in a way that ensures long-term stability.

The situation has quickly ignited tensions between the U.S. and Iran, raising a pivotal question: Does “Lebanese sovereignty” imply an immediate Israeli withdrawal, as Iran contends, or does it signify support for Lebanon’s intent to suppress Hezbollah, as claimed by the United States?

Iran, as Hezbollah’s primary supporter, disputes the latter view. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi argued last month that the deal undermines the U.S.-Iran memorandum.

“The war will not truly end unless Israeli forces pull out from the areas they have occupied,” he asserted.

The memorandum emphasizes ensuring Lebanon’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, which U.S. officials interpret as achieved by this deal. However, Iran perceives this notion of “sovereignty” to mean an immediate Israeli exit.

The United States holds that the agreement reflects the decisions made by Israel and Lebanon, independent of Iranian impositions. Yet, Iran’s dissent challenges the sovereignty of Lebanon that the memorandum aims to uphold.

This disagreement goes beyond mere semantics. Should Iran encourage Hezbollah to reject the deal and increase strikes on Israel, it could jeopardize the fragile ceasefire and risk dragging the U.S. back into conflict.

The agreement outlines a gradual transition for the Lebanese army to take over the battle against Hezbollah in two designated “test zones” in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli Defense Forces currently operate.

While Hezbollah has diminished in strength, it still retains a significant presence in Lebanon. Officials acknowledged the complexity of confronting a group so firmly rooted in Lebanese society.

“Given Hezbollah’s deep integration within various organizations in Lebanon, it’s clear that this won’t be simple,” an official remarked.

Success hinges on whether the Lebanese army can finally disarm Hezbollah without relying on Israeli military action, a feat it has struggled with for many years.

Although the operation was initially expected to commence late last month, it was delayed as Israel and Lebanon established a coordinated monitoring system intended to ensure LAF’s control over the area and to prevent Hezbollah’s return.

The effectiveness of this test will not only assess the military’s capability to keep Hezbollah at bay but also evaluate if the Lebanese government can provide genuine security and improve living standards in southern Lebanon through infrastructure and investment.

Prioritizing the success of the Lebanese takeover is deemed more crucial than speeding up the implementation of the process.

“An enforced withdrawal timeline failing to resolve the underlying issues will likely enable Hezbollah to regain its foothold in the south,” the official warned.

The overarching aim is to collaborate on this process so that both Israel and Lebanon can determine their future as independent states, instead of allowing Iran to set the agenda.

However, the role of Hezbollah remains uncertain. If groups backed by Iran decide to engage in conflict rather than comply, the hard-earned diplomatic relations could quickly unravel, potentially pushing the region toward widespread turmoil.

“How Hezbollah reacts is quite unpredictable,” the official acknowledged.