Russian missiles continue to strike Ukrainian cities while the U.S. delays approval for transferring Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, as reported by The Washington Post. A Ukrainian official mentioned that only a small number of interceptors are left. President Trump is pushing for an end to the conflict, which is a goal that certainly warrants support. However, a peace agreement that heavily favors Russia and places Ukraine in a compromising situation isn’t truly a plan for peace. Right now, it feels like Kyiv is bearing all the pressure while Moscow is benefiting from some relief.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on October 20 that a shipment of interceptors intended for Ukraine may not have arrived, but he dismissed any notion that this was politically motivated. “There’s nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine,” he stated.
This raises the question: is Washington trying to conserve limited military supplies, exert negotiating pressure, or perhaps a bit of both? Americans deserve clarification on what concessions are expected from President Putin in return.
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The administration’s primary justification revolves around scarcity, particularly regarding missiles. Lockheed Martin provided 620 PAC-3 MSE interceptors in 2025 and aims to ramp up annual production to 2,000 over the next seven years.
The conflict in Iran further complicated the situation. A July analysis showed that heavy operational use had depleted U.S. Patriot stockpile levels to under 1,000.
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A president has to ensure there’s enough defensive capability for American troops. Having worked in military strategy before, I understand the weight of that responsibility. However, the needs of Ukraine should not overshadow other commitments.
European contributions don’t alter the fundamental equation here. Data from the Kiel Institute indicates that Europe has been the primary military aid contributor recently, yet over 90% of assistance provided through NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) has come from U.S. stockpiles. Europe might be financing these arms, but the control remains firmly in Washington’s hands.
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The long-term solution to scarcity is ramping up production. When Senators Roger Wicker and Kevin Cramer met with President Zelenskyy on October 9, he pressed for quicker production approvals and suggested joint manufacturing of interceptors. This is definitely something Washington should investigate—of course with necessary technology safeguards in place.
Still, scarcity doesn’t account for every pending decision, and Washington owes its allies, who financed these weapons, a straightforward explanation. It also doesn’t clarify the broader pressure being placed on Kyiv.
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A clear case of this involves the PURL pipeline. According to Reuters, Washington threatened to halt the allied-funded weapons pipeline to compel Kyiv to back off from its strikes on Russian energy assets. This indicates leverage over Ukrainian military tactics rather than evidence of a coordinated plan to unseat Zelenskyy.
The situation with satellite communications is murkier. Elon Musk, who has faced criticism for limiting Ukraine’s internet access, stated that those decisions “are decided by the US military and ultimately” by the president. Reuters subsequently sourced the restrictions back to the White House through unnamed officials, although Trump refuted any involvement, claiming, “It wasn’t us,” in comments made to reporters on October 16. Oddly, Ukraine went three days without American missile alerts before Zelenskyy indicated on October 18 that intelligence sharing had resumed.
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Then there’s the personal pressure. Trump publicly suggested on October 10 that Ukraine should look for a new leader. Yet, Zelenskyy was still engaging with American officials in Oslo on October 20—showing that he’s open to diplomacy.
Now, let’s consider the other side of the equation. Trump proposed an energy ceasefire on October 11, although it’s unclear if Russia had agreed. A week later, Russian strikes targeted numerous substations and facilities, leaving around 550,000 Ukrainians without power. Meanwhile, Kyiv faced pressure to cease attacks on refineries, while Moscow continued to assault its energy grid. Putin never confirmed any ceasefire agreement, underscoring that he likely had no intention of keeping it.
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On its part, Moscow has benefited. On October 9, the Treasury issued a license permitting certain diesel transactions with Russia. Reuters later suggested this was intended to soften Russia’s negotiating stance.
The domestic pressures are evident, too. Diesel prices soared to an all-time high of $6.52 a gallon in September as the conflicts constrained supply routes, prompting Trump to promise relief for farmers and transporters. Still, data from Lawfare pointed out that the agreed-upon Russian exports would barely satisfy 2% of U.S. demand. The potential for price relief seems uncertain. Meanwhile, Russia gains significantly by receiving sanctions relief and pressuring Ukraine less aggressively concerning their oil refineries.
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Offering a rival some form of incentive can indeed be a sound diplomatic strategy. But it raises the question: what exactly does that incentive entail? So far, the ongoing bombings haven’t ceased.
Moreover, leniency hasn’t softened the Kremlin’s position. When Zelenskyy proposed a 60-day ceasefire to allow elections, Russia outright rejected it, demanding a comprehensive settlement instead. Moscow seems unwilling to entertain even a temporary halt that might be necessary for Trump’s proposition regarding Ukrainian leadership change.
Putin appears to have bigger ambitions. Reports from the New York Post suggest he seeks a summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the conflict without involving Ukraine or European nations—almost reminiscent of Yalta.
It seems Putin believes time works in his favor. Yet, the battlefield suggests otherwise. Reuters reported on October 17 that Russian advancements have stagnated, with many front lines remaining unchanged.
This gives Washington an opportunity to demand something in return. Wicker, chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, suggested a possible arrangement on October 18: limiting Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites in exchange for U.S. assistance in targeting Russian missile launches. It’s a proposal worth examining, albeit with the essential caveat that Putin also needs to show restraint.
What concessions should Putin be willing to abandon? As I have previously asserted, a sustainable agreement necessitates enforceable measures, beginning with concessions that Moscow can be held accountable for.
Russia must cease its attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and cities, similar to the restraint asked of Kyiv. Furthermore, it needs to agree to monitored ceasefire conditions, delineate its military actions, and accept consequences for breaking these agreements. Moscow must enter negotiations with Kyiv rather than bypass them through negotiations with China. Finally, it must recognize that Ukraine’s military size and its choice of allies are decisions for Kyiv to make, not the Kremlin.
On Trump’s part, he should aim to protect U.S. reserves, enhance production capabilities, demand accountability from Europe, and reject any summits that would determine Ukraine’s future without its involvement. Additionally, any diesel agreements and future sanctions relief should hinge on compliance, with strict penalties for any violations by Moscow.
There is no need for America to send troops into Ukraine or fund an endless conflict to insist on these precautions.
Trump’s ultimate aim is to bring an end to the violence. But whether Putin will accept these enforceable terms remains uncertain. The true test of U.S. diplomacy lies in determining if Moscow can earn relief through following the rules while facing higher costs for any renewed aggression.
