New reports suggest that the US economy may be on track to lose billions this year, largely due to President Trump’s policies which are having a negative impact on the tourism sector.
Efforts to increase deportations, the ongoing trade wars, anti-LGBTQ legislation, and recent travel bans affecting 12 countries have deterred foreign tourists and led to boycotts against the US.
Experts from the World Travel & Tourism Council estimate that the backlash from overseas visitors could cost the U.S. economy around $12.5 billion this year.
However, many of these estimates seem outdated. Predictions made in the past suggested a slowdown in the travel sector after Trump’s initial election, yet visitor numbers actually surged in the following years.
Trump has publicly aired frustrations about the trade deficit, but the anticipated dip in tourism could complicate matters since spending by foreign tourists contributes to what is considered our exports.
As of April, foreign arrivals in the United States had already decreased by 2.5%, according to the US International Trade Agency, with a significant drop occurring in March, when arrivals fell by 10% following heavy tariffs imposed on Canada, China, and Mexico.
These tariffs, along with Trump’s suggestion that Canada could become the 51st state, have led to some Canadians boycotting both travel to the US and American products.
While the US has yet to publish its Canadian tourism numbers, Canadian Statistics has reported a 15% decrease in travel from Canada in April, marking a continued decline.
Since Trump’s tenure began, tourism projections have been scaled back. Current forecasts anticipate about 66 million visitors this year, down from an earlier estimate of 79 million, as travelers seem to prefer booking trips elsewhere.
Tourism economics predicts a particularly steep decline from Canadian visitors—projected to drop by 20% this year—along with a nearly 6% decrease from Western Europe.
Travel platforms, including Airbnb, Booking.com, and Expedia, are reportedly canceling long-haul flights to major US cities and citing a potentially challenging year financially.
At least a dozen countries have issued travel advisories urging their citizens to be cautious when visiting the United States due to the risk of detention by immigration officials.
Additionally, some nations have warned transgender and non-binary individuals about potential complications regarding their passports following Trump’s executive order, which recognizes only “male” and “female” as valid genders.
According to Tourism Economics, global air bookings to the US from May 1 to July 31 have dropped by 11% compared to the same period last year.
The WTTC has noted that this is the first year that spending by international visitors is expected to decline since the onset of the pandemic, making the US the only economy among nearly 200 tracked by the organization projected to experience a fall in tourism revenue this year.
