Trump’s legal troubles more smoke than fire  

While leftists believe that prosecuting Donald Trump will guarantee he will never become president again, MAGA believers believe he could ride the sympathy vote to become president again. ing.

Which side is right? As it turns out, it’s neither.

President Trump’s legal problems don’t help. His rise in the polls against President Biden is the result of a series of problems plaguing Biden, and problems that are getting worse. Inflation, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas war (and Biden’s inability to address these issues) are pushing Trump and weighing on the incumbent.

For President Trump, the fact is that a criminal conviction would hurt his chances, not help him.The good news is that his legal troubles It’s not in the minds of voters. Although he may lose in court, there is still a chance that Biden’s policy failures could return Trump to the White House. politiko It may come as a surprise, but polling data has been telling us this for some time.

Trump’s trial: What the numbers say

Despite a cloud of uncertainty since Trump left office, legal fireworks have started with: indictment Published by Alvin Bragg on April 4, 2023. According to RealClearPolitics moving averageAt this point, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden were virtually even, with Mr. Biden at 43.5% and Mr. Trump at 43.4%. A month after the indictment, there has been little movement in the race, with Mr. Trump improving by less than 1 percentage point to 44.3% and Mr. Biden closing in on 43.8%.

Special Counsel Jack Smith indicted President Trump on June 8th. confidential document case, This also hardly moved the needle. President Trump’s average approval rating was 44.6% on the eve of his indictment, but had slipped slightly to 44% a month later. In August, Mr. Smith’s second indictment was inherited with indictment in georgia. Once again, the voting test against Biden moved little.

Overall, Mr. Trump was nearly even with Mr. Biden the day before Mr. Bragg’s indictment, but on September 14, a month after all criminal charges were filed, Mr. Trump was 45% to 44 against Mr. Biden. They maintained a slight lead of .5%. Mr. Trump rose just 1.6%, while Mr. Biden rose just 1%.

But the indictment certainly helped Trump in the Republican primary. In addition to forcing potential major opponents on his key issues to take his side, his indictment further boosted Trump’s profile. drown Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and more. Public policy issues were overshadowed by the sensational nature of the charges.

Curiously, the indictment did not improve Trump’s standing among Republican voters. What actually happened is that some Republican voters who supported Trump but voted for DeSantis gravitated toward the former president.by YouGov poll A poll conducted in the days leading up to Bragg’s indictment found President Trump had a favorable rating among Republican voters of 79% and an unfavorable rating of 19%. He leads DeSantis 53% to 31%, and among Republicans, 61% want him to run, while 25% oppose him. A poll test between Trump and DeSantis showed a 26-point difference in Trump’s favor.

inside May 16th The YouGov poll showed the numbers in President Trump’s favor remained steady, but DeSantis began to slide. Mr. Trump’s approval rating remained at 79%, but improved to 58% compared to Mr. DeSantis, who fell to 25%, a 21-point difference. By the time the series of indictments came out, President Trump’s Republican numbers were even worse. Nevertheless, he consolidated his leading position.

In the second half August A YouGov poll shows Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 75%, with 59% of Republicans wanting him to run. When tested against all Republican candidates, Mr. Trump received just 51% of the vote, compared to 14% for Mr. DeSantis, who came in second place. One notable improvement for Mr. Trump is that Republican support has solidified slightly compared to Mr. Biden, with 84% in the August poll, 80% in April and 83% in June. %.

The narrative within the Republican Party was not that Trump’s indictments were helping. It was a crowded field of inexperienced and fumbling opponents in the face of massive free publicity for Trump and a level of antipathy for Biden.

Mr. Trump’s legal problems have not played much of a role within the Republican Party, but they remain a general election issue.

inside Morning consultation A January poll asked voters whether they would be willing to vote for Trump if he was convicted and sentenced to prison. In this poll, the sample leans slightly towards Republicans, with 53% saying they would be “unwilling” if Trump were convicted and 46% saying they would be “very reluctant” (if Trump was sentenced to prison). (55% and 48%, respectively). Worse, 49% of independents were “very unwilling,” as were 14% of Republicans (51% and 18%, respectively, if they were sentenced to prison).The Politico/An Ipsos poll that looked only at Bragg’s indictment wasn’t as bad, with 36% of independents less likely to vote for Trump and 32% overall voting guilty.

That’s not a good number, since Mr. Trump would likely need at least 90% of Republicans and a solid majority of independents to win. Fortunately for Trump, voters have more important things on their minds.

The Biden issue is President Trump’s trump card

One of the biggest mistakes when reading polls is taking questions individually. If Trump’s trial is all that voters have in mind, a conviction would derail the campaign. But the reality is that reachable voters, those who are not in Trump or Biden’s base, are concerned about other issues like inflation and immigration. And it was Biden’s mishandling of these issues that propelled Trump forward.

Trump and Biden’s separation began in November. As of November 1, RCP’s voting test showed Trump with a slight lead of 45.4% and Biden with 44.9%. But by mid-December, a growing migrant crisis, persistent inflation, and Hamas terrorist attacks had taken their toll. Mr. Trump rose nearly two points in the election to 47.2%, while Mr. Biden slipped to 43.7%. By the end of January, that lead proved durable, with Trump leading 47.5% to 43.6%. And Trump has been in charge ever since.

President Trump’s move coincides with Biden’s ouster. In terms of support. On Labor Day, Mr. Biden’s approval/disapproval rate was 53.6% disapproval and 42.0% approval, but as of the time of writing this analysis, it has fallen to 56.3% disapproval and 40.3% approval, close to the lowest ever for Mr. Biden.There also seems to be some concern about Biden. age and leadership Fifty-five percent of those surveyed think Biden’s age is “seriously” a factor (compared to 59% of independents), and 63% think Biden is weak (45% are “very “Weak”), including 72% (50%) of independents. “Very weak”).

crime entertainment

If you look at the numbers, the conclusion is that Donald Trump is up because Joe Biden is down. What changed was the Hamas attack in October, not when the indictment was handed down. Shortly after, Trump took the lead in national voting tests. important battlefield state.

There is no evidence that President Trump will be found “guilty” on his way back to the Oval Office. For him, criminal liability is nothing but a bad thing. But given the drifting, fumbling and stumbling of the Biden administration, guilt may not matter.

Dr. Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Norton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.