One of the most pressing questions about the 2024 presidential election has long been what the fallout will be. 88 felonies The case, which spanned four separate trials, affected former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Furthermore, if Trump were to be found guilty in some or all of his trials, would voters be comfortable choosing a president who is also a convicted felon?
So far, the ongoing trial has not materially affected the former president’s standing with voters nationwide, according to a new poll by our firm, Shane Cooperman Research.
Just 22 registered voters say they would be less likely to vote for the former president even if Trump were forced to spend much of the time between now and Election Day off the campaign trail and in court. %, a quarter of voters actually say they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he ended up spending more time in court.
Notably, a 53% majority was unmoved by the Trump trial, indicating that keeping Trump on the court and keeping him out of it is unlikely to be the deciding factor some had assumed. is supported.
Similarly, the Shane Cooperman Research poll suggests that the charges against Trump may actually benefit the former president by allowing him to play the role he does best: political martyr. It emphasizes that it is very realistic.
Indeed, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether the charges against Mr. Trump are legitimate or politically motivated.
While 47% of voters say the prosecution is legally sound, a significant 40% say it amounts to political persecution. Similarly, 48% say Trump has done something wrong and should be prosecuted, while 39% say Trump has done something wrong and should not be prosecuted. 13%) or say Trump did nothing wrong (26%).
However, half of voters (50%) agree that “the charges against Donald Trump are a form of election interference and are being carried out by liberal prosecutors, the Biden administration, and the Justice Department.”
Furthermore, virtually the same 49% of voters agree that Donald Trump is a victim of political persecution by the Biden administration, which is targeting political opponents in a manner similar to third world countries. And a plurality (45%) of registered voters believe the indictment is “Democrats’ latest plan to steal the 2024 election.”
Indeed, some of the uncertainty and modest impact that Mr. Trump’s trial will have on election chances is almost certainly due to the fact that the case is currently underway in New York City.hush money” The incident is the least politically damaging for the former president.
Unlike the trial dealing with Trump, Alleged attempt to overturn 2020 election, Voter intervention in Georgiaor even potentially Mishandling of confidential information In Florida, the New York City case was always considered the least important to voters.
The case relies on the untested application of complex accounting laws, lacks the political and national security weight of other cases, and importantly, it Given its location, it can and has been depicted as being driven by evil spirits. Overtly political district attorney.
In fact, even if President Trump were to be convicted in this case related to falsifying business records and paying hush money to porn actress Stormy Daniels, our poll shows that it would affect the vote. The survey found that voters were sharply divided on the question of whether the government would have a positive impact, with 27% more likely to vote. 32% said they were 32% more likely to vote for Trump, 32% less likely, and another 32% said it would not affect their vote.
The fact that this case is likely the only one likely to reach a verdict before the 2024 election is a big deal for Trump, especially if prosecutors are unable to convince all jurors of Trump’s guilt. It will be an important gift. Even if the jury were hung, the retrial would be postponed until after the election, and Trump would endlessly claim and boast that juries in even the most liberal cities did not find him guilty.
To that end, our finding that a majority or even a complete majority of Americans perceive these prosecutions to be politically motivated should be a warning to Democrats.
Both Donald Trump in 2020 and former President Bill Clinton in 1998 saw their approval ratings rise during their impeachments, which were seen as highly partisan. In fact, Trump and Clinton each posted their highest approval ratings of their terms amid their impeachments, according to NBC News tracking. poll.
Ultimately, it remains to be seen whether the charges, or possible conviction, that President Trump faces will weigh more heavily on voters as November approaches. If Trump is indeed convicted, enough voters may ultimately decide that he is disqualified, even in the New York City case, which is considered the least important to voters. .
That said, as this SCR poll reveals, President Trump’s legal troubles haven’t had the negative impact many expected — and Democrats expected, too. Maybe.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Shawn Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book America: Unite or Die.
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