During a recent panel discussion on the newly declared two-week cease-fire with Iran, opinions varied significantly among the participants. While some disagreed, Kellyanne Conway echoed my view, highlighting President Trump’s pattern of negotiations that seem to yield at least a temporary win.
The real impact of this victory, though, will unfold over the next couple of weeks. An essential question looms: who in Iran has the authority to honor the promise about reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
If that commitment holds, we could see a rise in global oil supplies, allowing the Iranian regime to assess the significant damage inflicted on its military over the past five weeks.
Trump’s approach to Iran has been effective, emphasizing the importance of deterrence.
If the Strait remains closed to free passage or if hostilities against Israel and its Gulf allies reignite, we might soon witness another phase of the Third Gulf War.
That conflict began with the Israeli incursion from Gaza, alongside the horrific events like the attacks on October 7, 2023. Through both support and obstacles, the U.S. rallied its allies, enabling Israel to mount a powerful response against Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israel faced its first direct confrontation with Iran, clarifying the threat posed by Iran and its affiliates.
When Trump returned to the presidency, his administration successfully pressed for the return of hostages, leading to a cease-fire. Remaining Hamas and Hezbollah fighters retreated into hiding, eliminating many of their top leaders.
Iran recently unveiled a ten-point peace initiative with the U.S., including:
The subsequent round of conflict started in June 2025 with Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, wrapping up with America’s Operation Midnight Hammer, which effectively dismantled Iran’s nuclear capabilities and air defense systems. As a result, Iran experienced a wave of civil unrest demanding change in December, only to face brutal crackdowns in January. The world has witnessed the chaos of the Khamenei regime. The U.S. and Israel now strategize for their next moves.
Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion on February 28 resulted in high costs, including the loss of American lives and injuries among soldiers, yet they further weakened Tehran’s terrorist infrastructure.
We’re still trying to piece together who is truly in charge in Iran, but troop reinforcements are ready to respond based on significant intelligence gathered recently, including a remarkable rescue of a downed American pilot which embarrassed the Revolutionary Guard.
This rescue, carried out in a highly complex operation, was followed by B-2 bombers targeting key positions in Tehran. The fate of Revolutionary Guard leaders remains uncertain, yet the regime faces challenges amid reports of significant injuries to Khamenei and ongoing purges within their ranks. Many Iranians are still cut off from the internet, living in fear—whether of us, of Israel, or of one another.
President Trump issued a strong ultimatum. Although some critics interpreted this as a threat against the Iranian people, such a reading seems quite misguided. Detractors attempted to paint his message as an unreasonable call for nuclear action or disproportionate attacks on civilians, yet nothing of that nature unfolded. The online reaction, especially among those affected by what some term “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” reached new heights of hysteria.
Then, a shift occurred within the administration, allowing Trump to claim a significant victory. The narrative surrounding him quickly transformed, with critiques diminishing in intensity. Their abrupt reversal doesn’t add up. For nearly half a century, the West’s long-time adversary has faced defeat, its leaders undone, and its influence withered. The recent conflict has made it clear that Iran is fundamentally incapable of self-defense, relying on ineffective missile and drone capabilities.
Whether the new leadership on the ruins of the Revolutionary Guards can fulfill the ceasefire promises remains to be seen. If they fail, President Trump may initiate further actions, informed by updates on the situation within Iran.
Mike Pence: Trump, alongside our remarkable military, will effectively conclude 47 years of Iranian terrorism.
The conflict isn’t resolved yet, but it’s important to remember that extensive disputes don’t wrap up quickly. Historical parallels can be drawn to the last decade of the First Cold War.
Back in the summer of 1983, leaders like President Reagan and Prime Minister Thatcher were under immense pressure regarding the deployment of certain missiles in Europe. Yet, they pressed on, establishing deterrent measures and conveying their intentions to the Soviets. Through various strategic military actions, the Cold War dynamic began to shift.
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This ongoing conflict marks an uninterrupted effort by the American president to secure victories en route to a broader strategic resolution.
For real progress on the global stage, adversaries of the West must perceive the U.S. and its allies as both potent and resilient, despite political divisions and media scrutiny. Each move requires instantaneous decisions, but the recent weeks have underscored a significant initial success in this long-standing battle with the Iranian regime, potentially paving the way for an eventual transformation or collapse. It also highlights some shortcomings among our European allies, yet Israel’s capabilities and the clarity in our Gulf partnerships are promising. Many notable developments are occurring in the Middle East, with many leaning toward the positive.
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