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The tragic loss of a Ukrainian Air Force F-16 last week while tracking an Iranian drone at low altitude is clear evidence that the Ukrainian Air Force is becoming more aggressive and capable. But there is a sobering warfare lesson here in the US versus China game: the daily air battles with missiles and drones over Ukraine are just a taste of what US bases and allies could experience in the event of a Chinese attack.
This much we can say: the pilot, identified as Col. Alexei “Moonfish” Mess, was almost certainly very aggressive in defense of his homeland. Russia launched an attack on Ukraine on August 26 with 127 missiles and 109 one-way attack drones. The Mess has already shot down several aircraft, reportedly three cruise missiles and one drone, expending more than four weapons from the jet.
“Losing the pilot is excruciatingly painful, especially since he was one of those who fought for Ukraine's right to have F-16s,” pilot and former Ukrainian Air Force officer Anatoly Khrapchinsky told The New York Times on Saturday.
Russia launches 'brutal' and 'cowardly' missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas for second consecutive day
The Scalpel still had weapons left, and the F-16's 20mm Gatling gun had hundreds of rounds in it. For example, Shahed 136 drones fly relatively low at about 115 mph, making them an attractive but vulnerable target for a skilled fighter pilot. If pilots continue to engage at low altitudes, the risks increase. In these tense moments, obsession with the target can overpower caution. Imagine the pressure when missiles are headed toward civilians — your own people.
Though tragic, the loss of this hard-fought F-16 in Ukraine shows that Russia and China should be worried. Here's why:
First, the F-16s have made the Ukrainian Air Force more aggressive and capable, and Metz praised the planes' advanced avionics in an interview last November.[The] The F-16 is highly maneuverable and encourages an aggressive flying style.” He told the interviewer.
Belgian F-16 fighter jets take part in NATO's nuclear air exercise “Steadyfast Noon,” a routine nuclear deterrence exercise, at Kleine Brogel Air Base, Belgium, on October 18, 2022. (Photo provided by: KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images)
Longtime Air Force insiders say such crashes are often a sign of improved combat capability for the entire force as top pilots push the F-16 to its limits. When the F-16 was new, the Air Force was losing 15 to 20 F-16s a year — during training, not combat.
The US and NATO have finally decided to stop heeding Putin's warnings about escalation and commit air power to Ukraine. Note that this was with highly capable F-16s coordinated by the US Air Force's elite 68th Electronic Combat Squadron, which announced last month that it had reprogrammed the electronic warfare subsystems of Ukrainian F-16s to counter evolving Russian jamming and spoofing tactics.
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President Volodomyr Zelenskyy fired the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force after the incident. This, too, is not unusual. Removing a commander means holding him accountable. Most professional air forces do this routinely.
Of course, it still blows my mind that President Biden’s team’s decision to procrastinate has delayed the arrival of the first few F-16s until August 2024. But there’s no turning back now. Ultimately, the Ukrainian Air Force will get 60-80 F-16s through a NATO partner that has decided to ignore Putin’s tirades and threats.
“We think it's important to protect Ukraine from further Russian escalation by providing these fighter jets,” Metz said last year. Ukraine's willingness to use (and lose) F-16s in combat strengthens the country's defenses. Specific combat lessons learned from Ukraine will be used to inform future tactics.
For China, this is a question of tactics and deterrence. China could launch hundreds of drones and missiles around its Pacific allies, launching wave after wave of attacks. As China becomes more powerful, there is a tendency to believe that the U.S. Air Force will “confront” it with long-range weapons and bombers, leaving the close-quarters combat to the drones. But don't get your hopes up.
In just a month of operations, Ukraine's handful of F-16s have shown that close-quarters combat is the latest tactic for pursuing drones and missiles. Though the scenario is different, the U.S. and its allies are getting significant tactical feedback from Ukraine. The reality is that Pacific air planners are preparing for a tough fight with bases under the kind of heavy attack not seen since World War II. Any combat lessons learned from Ukraine will be useful in the imperative to deter China.
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A senior U.S. official said earlier this month that they did not believe the F-16 was lost as a result of “friendly fire” from Ukrainian air defense forces during the melee, but the Ukrainian air force would still investigate.
Airmen won't speculate until a full investigation is completed, and this is sure to be one of those accident reports that NATO airmen will be following closely, from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General CQ Brown, himself an F-16 pilot, to every jet pilot from Finland to Turkey and beyond.
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