Baltimore and Jacksonville were expected to meet as two AFC contenders. Instead, the Ravens are preparing to start their third-string quarterback, while the Jaguars arrive in strong form.
Baltimore’s season took a sharp turn when Lamar Jackson injured his right thumb on the opening play of Sunday’s 36-10 loss to Buffalo. He has been placed on injured reserve and is expected to undergo surgery, leaving the rest of his season uncertain. Tyler Huntley also left the game with a turf toe injury that is reportedly expected to end his season, and Skylar Thompson is already on injured reserve. Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who is dealing with an ankle issue, could start on a short week.
Fagnano struggled in relief against the Bills, completing 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards and throwing an interception. He also lost a fumble. Baltimore has dropped three straight and has a 7-13 record in games Jackson has missed.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 5-2, leads the AFC South and has the NFL’s best point differential at plus-85. The Jaguars are coming off a 42-7 win over Indianapolis. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. Baltimore opened as a three-point favorite, but the line has since moved to make the Ravens a near double-digit home underdog.
Joe Fagnano’s passing-yard total could be a difficult one to clear. He is a rookie facing his first likely start on a short week, and his outing against Buffalo offered little reason to expect a high-volume passing game. Baltimore may rely on a cautious approach to keep pressure off him.
Lawrence, by contrast, has been playing some of the best football of his career. Baltimore could be without cornerback Nate Wiggins, who is listed as questionable with a concussion, though he practiced fully earlier in the week. A big early lead might limit Lawrence’s work late, but he could still put up strong numbers before then.
Derrick Henry could see plenty of carries. With an inexperienced quarterback in the lineup, Baltimore’s clearest path may be to lean on its running game and try to control the clock. Even if the Ravens fall behind, running the ball could help keep Fagnano out of obvious passing situations.
Jacksonville has the edge at quarterback, on defense and in recent form. Baltimore does have home-field advantage, and the teams’ history is somewhat closer than the current line implies: the Ravens have won three of their last five meetings. Still, the quarterback gap is likely to shape the matchup.
