The likelihood of some sort of military operation against Venezuela seems to be increasing.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal on Thursday, the Trump administration has pinpointed specific ground targets potentially suitable for strikes against the South American nation. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has reacted angrily to what appears to be a Washington-driven campaign to remove him from power.
Additionally, the U.S. has conducted at least 14 strikes against ships in the Caribbean, many traced back to Venezuela. While the Trump administration alleges these vessels are involved in drug trafficking, there’s little substantial evidence to back that up.
Here are a few key points worth noting:
Tensions rise over suspicion of targeting
Tensions have ramped up dramatically in recent weeks, with President Trump admitting he gave the CIA the green light to operate within Venezuela.
A new phase of escalation has begun, as detailed in the Thursday journal article. It suggested that identifying targets could pave the way for airstrikes intended to deliver a clear message to Maduro—essentially urging him to step down.
The article went on to mention “potential targets” under investigation, including military-controlled ports and airports allegedly utilized for drug trafficking.
In a separate piece from the Miami Herald, sources revealed that the Trump administration has decided to attack military installations inside Venezuela.
Such actions would clearly constitute an act of war, given Venezuela’s population of about 28 million and its military of roughly 120,000 troops.
However, the White House has downplayed these claims. Press Secretary Anna Kelly told Fox News that the anonymous sources are misinformed.
Trump himself denied the allegations, stating, “No, that’s not true,” when questioned by NewsNation’s Kelly Meyer about the Air Force One article.
Long backstory
The background of U.S.-Venezuela tensions stretches back many years. Maduro took office following the death of former President Hugo Chávez, who was both an ally and mentor to him. Chávez, with his anti-Washington stance, often accused the U.S. of orchestrating a coup attempt against him in 2002.
Chávez was a polarizing figure, but Maduro has taken the country in an even more authoritarian direction, consolidating power and targeting opposition. His most recent election attempts have been heavily criticized as fraudulent, accompanied by credible claims of extensive voter malfeasance.
While the U.S. does not recognize Maduro’s presidency, more than 50 other countries share this stance. In August, the U.S. increased the reward to $50 million for information leading to Maduro’s capture.
However, Trump’s attempts to link Venezuela with fentanyl trafficking into the U.S. are questionable at best. Many experts point out that very little fentanyl originates from Venezuela, which primarily serves as a transit route for Colombian cocaine smuggling.
Trump has also targeted Venezuela regarding immigration policies, suggesting that the Alien Enemies Act could be invoked to deport Venezuelan immigrants. This stance is based on claims that gangs are invading the U.S. with the Maduro regime’s tacit approval, a theory disputed by many liberal commentators.
Maduro reacts with fury
Maduro has asserted that Washington is conspiring to remove him from office, describing the U.S. as “fabricating a new forever war.”
Reports suggest he has reached out to China, Russia, and Iran for support against potential U.S. military aggression. He announced in August his willingness to mobilize over 4 million militia members to fortify national defenses. Government officials have talked about the importance of protecting “every inch” of Venezuelan territory.
Still, some conciliatory signals have emerged from Maduro’s camp. He recently offered the U.S. controlling interests in the country’s oil and mineral resources in an attempt to ease tensions, though this overture seems to have fallen flat.
Rubio’s role in causing a stir in MAGA
The prospect of military action against Venezuela has stirred anxiety within Trump’s MAGA movement and among libertarian-leaning Republicans.
Some influential MAGA figures like Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson are skeptical of military actions against Caracas, arguing that they violate Trump’s “America First” principles. On the other hand, Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has criticized attacks on boats in the Caribbean and is advocating for Congressional limits on Trump’s military actions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, conversely, seems to be pushing for a more aggressive stance. With roots as the son of Cuban immigrants, he has long viewed Latin America’s left-wing leaders like Maduro negatively, aiming to increase pressure by highlighting the drug crisis.
Though Trump set aside his isolationist inclinations during the June bombing of Iran, that incident did not escalate as feared. However, a strike on Venezuela could spark a significant crisis, especially if Maduro remains in power.
The situation is critical
It’s crucial to recognize that while the U.S. is intensifying its military presence, Trump might eventually shy away from direct action.
Yet things could tilt unnervingly in the opposite direction. The Miami Herald has reported that the U.S. could launch air attacks against Venezuelan targets “within days or even hours.” Recently, another aircraft carrier was dispatched, joining seven warships already positioned near Venezuela.
If a ground attack were to be executed, it could plunge the world into another crisis, firmly placing Trump in the spotlight once more.
