There’s speculation surrounding a substantial trade that occurred just minutes before President Trump announced a pause on attacks against Iran. This trade may have netted a fortune, estimated between $40 and $50 million, according to sources.
Traders on Wall Street are now eagerly looking for regulatory review of this deal, which was executed shortly before 7 a.m. ET on Monday, during a usually quiet time for the market. Approximately 7,200 oil futures contracts valued at $760 million changed hands, as noted by Mike Ko, an experienced commodity trader.
Simultaneously, a rush of activity in S&P futures occurred, with 6,000 contracts trading and an underlying value around $2 billion.
At 7:04 a.m. ET, President Trump posted on Truth Social about “productive conversations” with Iran, resulting in a rapid drop in oil prices by 10% to 15%, while stocks rose by 4%.
The unusual timing of the trade raised eyebrows, but so did its massive scale.
“People were definitely freaking out,” Kau told sources, expressing the frustration on the trading floor. “We’ve all had our share of market struggles, but this kind of event really irritates everyone since it was unexpected.”
Kau mentioned that many traders are curious about who might have orchestrated this fortunate timing. “I can’t say if it was one person, two, or a group,” he remarked. “What I can confirm is that I made a nice profit selling right after Trump’s announcement—pretty good for just 15 minutes of effort.”
While there’s no proof of insider trading, another experienced trader lamented the situation, deeming it “disappointing.”
White House Representative Khush Desai stated that all federal employees must adhere to ethical guidelines forbidding the use of nonpublic information for profit, adding that any claims of officials engaging in such practices are unfounded and irresponsible.
White House Counsel David Warrington further claimed that President Trump isn’t involved in any business dealings intertwined with his official responsibilities.
It’s entirely possible that trends identified by legal market intelligence software—rather than insider knowledge—spurred the trading movements, another trader suggested.
Ko noted that the trading algorithm might have detected signals hinting at favorable news related to Iran. Just days before, traders observed significant buying in S&P futures even as the market declined, indicating some anticipation of positive developments that Monday. Kaw observed that technical factors could have played into the S&P futures activity, possibly due to traders settling positions as options expired.
However, the trading on Monday was more “out of the ordinary,” he said.
“It occurred during a period when market liquidity was low,” Ko explained, noting how this trade stood out while other traders remained inactive. “Once the news broke, there was a rush to act.”
Experts indicated that such trades likely stemmed from a combination of openly available information, suggesting that even obscure news reports may have contributed to this flurry of activity.
A spokesperson for the Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment. There was also no response from representatives of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where these transactions occurred. While options can be traded anonymously, the exchanges maintain the ability to track identities.
