Warnings on Missile Stockpiles Post-Iran Conflict
A Jewish-American national security group has raised alarms regarding how adversaries of the U.S. and Israel might take advantage of dwindling missile supplies following a 12-day conflict with Iran.
Defending the Al-Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar from Iranian counterstrikes reportedly cost the U.S. and Israel between $1.488 billion and $1.58 billion, primarily due to the extensive use of missile interceptors, as determined by an analysis from the American National Security Association (Jinsa).
At this point, there’s a pressing need for both nations to replenish their missile stocks and ramp up production. By June 13, prior to Israel’s assault on Iran, the U.S. possessed about 632 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. Based on Jinsa’s assessment, it appears that roughly 540 of these interceptors are still available.
Moreover, the two Patriot missile defense systems at Al-Udeid, which serves as the largest base in the region housing 10,000 troops, utilized around 30 interceptors in response to 14 Iranian ballistic missiles on June 23. The cost of each interceptor was about $3.7 million, leading to a total expenditure of roughly $111 million.
During the conflict, Iran targeted Israeli and U.S. military installations in Qatar with 574 medium-range ballistic missiles after strikes on Iranian sites between June 13 and June 24.
Do Iran’s Threats Have Substance?
Retired Lt. Gen. Thomas Bergson, a former U.S. Central Commander, emphasized the need for the U.S. and its allies to consider investing in non-explosive defense mechanisms. He mentioned that such systems could neutralize threats more cost-effectively than current multi-billion dollar options.
“Operational and developmental tests are underway using less expensive alternatives,” he noted. These include various non-kinetic strategies, like electromagnetic interference and microwave lasers, which could offer a larger quantity of defense measures at a much lower fiscal impact.
The expenses incurred by both the U.S. and Israel were considerable, but so were those faced by Iran, estimated between $1.1 billion to $6.6 billion, alongside roughly $13.5 billion in property damage in Israel.
Interestingly, Iran reportedly exhausted about one-third to half of its ballistic missile arsenal in the skirmish, casting doubt on their claims that they could sustain attacks for years without significant consequences.
Given that Israel has already targeted numerous Iranian launchers and production facilities, replenishing missile stockpiles might become even costlier in the future.
Interestingly, while the U.S. has depleted 14% of its total THAAD interceptors, the system is responsible for about half of all interceptions attributed to concerns over the effectiveness of Israel’s Arrow interceptor system.
Replenishing these interceptor stocks could take anywhere from three to eight years based on current production capabilities.
Though production might be more stable for the Patriot Interceptor, many have been supplied to Ukraine, creating uncertainty around the remaining inventory.
If the U.S. and Israel cannot promptly restock their THAAD and Patriot systems, they might be left vulnerable in future confrontations, especially as adversaries can observe the gap between munitions usage and inventory levels.
Concerns were noted in the report about how Iran’s missile strategies could expose weaknesses in the air defense systems of both Israel and the U.S., potentially offering valuable insights for adversarial nations in future engagements.
As of now, the Pentagon has not responded regarding its plans for replenishing missile interceptors.
