The United States and Russia are approaching a situation that could spark the first unrestricted nuclear arms race since the Cold War. This tension arises as the last treaty designed to limit both nations’ nuclear arsenals is set to expire soon.
The New START Treaty, established in 2010 to cap the nuclear stockpiles of the U.S. and Russia, will officially end on Thursday. With its expiration, both countries could deploy long-range nuclear weapons without any limits, a first in over fifty years.
In an effort to prevent a further escalation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested a temporary agreement whereby both sides would voluntarily adhere to existing missile and warhead limits for another year, allowing for continued negotiations. However, President Donald Trump has indicated he prefers to let the treaty expire and replace it with a more comprehensive deal that would include China.
Trump stated, “If it’s expired, it’s expired. We just have a better agreement.”
Under the New START, each nation was allowed a maximum of 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, which include intercontinental ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. The last time there were similar lapses in arms control was in 1972 when former President Nixon and Soviet leader Brezhnev agreed on historic arms control measures.
A White House official remarked that Trump has consistently emphasized the need to address the nuclear threat globally and has shown interest in maintaining limits while bringing China into the fold for arms control talks.
Despite these efforts, China has outright rejected the idea of participating in negotiations, arguing that it should not be pressured into talks with nations possessing significantly larger nuclear arsenals. A spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed that China’s nuclear capabilities aren’t on par with those of the United States and termed the request for their participation in discussions as unrealistic.
Though China’s current capacity is estimated at around 600 warheads, projections from the Pentagon suggest that may jump to over 1,000 by 2030.
A bipartisan Congressional committee recently warned that the U.S. is on the brink of a vastly different geopolitical landscape, one in which two nations could have nuclear arsenals comparable to ours. They cautioned that the risk of conflict with these powers is rising, presenting an existential challenge that necessitates an adjustment to America’s strategic stance.
Some analysts suggest that, once the New START Treaty expires, the U.S. might significantly increase its nuclear arsenal, with projections of Russia doing the same. Advocates for arms control fear that without restrictions, an expensive arms race could ensue, while skeptics point to Russia’s trustworthiness, noting that Putin has paused compliance with the treaty amid escalating tensions over Ukraine.
Republican Senator Roger Wicker, who chairs the Armed Services Committee, remarked that the New START Treaty was negotiated a long time ago and outlined how it initially fostered some transparency between the U.S. and Russia regarding their nuclear capabilities—until compliance became disadvantageous for Putin.
The window for reaching an agreement is narrowing since the treaty has reached its limit for extensions, having already been renewed in 2021 under the Biden administration. The Kremlin has noted that Trump has not yet replied to Putin’s suggestion for an extension.
A White House representative stated that the president would determine the future course regarding nuclear arms control at his discretion.
In a notable move, Trump directed the War Department in October to resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time in over three decades, citing the growing nuclear capabilities of China and Russia as a justification.
