Iran may be reconsidering attacking Israel in retaliation for the alleged assassination of a senior Hamas official, but experts question what influence U.S. assets in the region may have had on Iran’s change of heart.
Richard Goldberg, senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital that after seeing the U.S. Navy patrol the region for months without responding to Iranian escalation, it’s unlikely Iran would respond for fear of U.S. retaliation.
“Khamenei sees the pageantry of military parades as a credible military threat and will continue to do so until he is proven wrong,” Goldberg said. “Being held hostage by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its terrorist organizations is not sustainable in the long term.”
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A map showing U.S. Navy assets stationed in the Middle East. (Fox News)
The only way to restore deterrence, he added, is to reinstate sanctions and demonstrate a willingness to take military action.
“The alternative is to succumb to a crazed, terrorist-supporting regime with nuclear weapons, with catastrophic consequences not only for the Middle East but for the entire national security of the United States,” Goldberg said.
Israeli media reported Thursday that Iran may back away from plans to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which Iranian officials blame on Israel. However, according to the Times of Israel, officials later concluded that Haniyeh’s death was caused by a bomb planted in his room, not a missile strike.
U.S. officials still expect Iran to respond to Haniyeh’s death, but that response is likely to be more measured. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters on Monday that the United States had urged countries to impress upon Iran that “new attacks on Israel would not be in Iran’s interest at all.”
A U.S. official told Fox News Digital last week that reports that 12 warships had been sent to the region due to concerns about rising tensions after the assassination were false, and that warships already in the Middle East had “no formal mission.” The official noted that the warships remain scattered, some are in port or conducting routine operations, and none are near any strategic locations.
James Carafano, an E.W. Richardson fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a 25-year Army veteran, told Fox News Digital that any deployment of assets would be in addition to behind-the-scenes discussions, but he questioned the influence many of those discussions would have on Iranian decision-making.
“We don’t always negotiate back channels, but just listening to American diplomacy is not going to help us at all,” Carafano said. “I can’t imagine that anything we’ve said publicly is going to have any impact on Iran’s behavior.”
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Carafano said three things could be at play: Israel’s “very precise, very strategic, very balanced” offensive capabilities that could retaliate without escalating the war; Lebanon’s chaotic domestic situation “could fall apart five minutes into the war”; and growing political protests that could spread to other parts of the world and impact Iran.
“There is a revolution happening in Venezuela, and the Green Revolution, like the Arab Spring, tends to spread,” Carafano said. “So this is a big risk on the Iranian side.”
Iranians burn an image of the Israeli flag during the funeral of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard, who were killed in an assassination blamed on Israel, at Enkelab-e-Eslami in Tehran, Iran, on August 1, 2024. (Majid Saedi/Getty Images)
Carafano noted that the US already “deploys a full range of capabilities to reach nearly any target” in the Middle East, and that the recent deployment of F-22 fighter jets will only bolster an already robust presence in the region.
“We have deployed significant military forces in the region, all of which are military forces with deep strike capabilities,” Carafano said, calling it a “powerful statement.”
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US Central Command (CENTCOM) posted on social media platform X that the Air Force deployed the F-22 Raptors on Thursday “as part of a shift in US force posture in the region and to counter threats posed by Iran and Iran-backed groups.”
CENTCOM announced the Raptor deployment a week ago, reiterating the need to deter Iranian attacks on Israel.
“As part of the shift in U.S. force posture in the region and to address threats posed by Iran and Iran-backed groups, U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility on August 8,” U.S. Central Command said in a statement on Thursday. (U.S. Central Command)
Goldberg acknowledged that the US has redeployed some assets in the region but disagreed that the “build-up” of recent weeks has changed Iran’s mind.
“In general, the notion of a surge within the past week is more of a press release than reality,” Goldberg said. “The Lincoln just docked in Guam over the weekend, so it’s unlikely they’ll be deployed before an Iranian attack occurs.”
“Let’s not forget: the U.S. Navy has already deployed additional ships to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as Houthi attacks on shipping continue, and these are the same ships we want to protect against Iranian missile attacks.”
Matt McInnis, a senior fellow at the Institute for the Study of War and a former intelligence officer, agreed that the deployment of weapons would only further bolster diplomatic efforts to pressure Iran to avoid a major escalation. Iran’s neighbors have been pressuring it over the past week to prevent it from plunging into all-out war with Israel.
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“I think the additional troops that are being sent are supporting the diplomatic efforts currently underway to try to reduce the scope and risk of potential Iranian action against Israel,” McInnis told Fox News Digital. “So I think it’s having an effect, but it’s not out of step with other diplomatic efforts that are currently underway.”
“I think overall, they’re having to make some tough choices right now about our posture in the Middle East, in Europe and particularly in the Indo-Pacific region,” he added. “It’s always going to be difficult to bring forces back to the Middle East, but I think they’re probably making the adjustments that they can at this point given the resources that are available.”
