U.S. officials and experts are currently deliberating whether taking control of Iran’s primary oil export hub could significantly impact the country’s finances. However, many warn that this action might not completely or quickly sever Iran’s revenue streams as anticipated.
Analysts suggest that U.S. planners are facing a complex choice: would capturing Kharg disrupt Iran’s oil revenues or would it leave a significant export route functional, potentially putting U.S. forces at risk? Among the options being explored are intercepting tankers at sea or targeting export facilities from the air—some experts argue this could financially strain Iran without deploying ground troops.
“There’s a huge debate going on right now,” says RP Newman, a Marine Corps veteran and counterterrorism analyst.
Kharg Island is crucial for Iran’s crude oil exports and holds significant strategic importance in the region, making it a focal point for any economic pressure aimed at Tehran.
Newman added, “Militarily speaking, we certainly have the capability to take it.” Some experts believe that capturing Kharg could yield immediate economic repercussions, cutting off the regime’s primary oil revenue source and bolstering U.S. influence during negotiations.
Yet, executing such operations isn’t straightforward. “It’s going to take thousands of people to make it happen,” he noted.
The U.S. military had already struck the island in early March, intentionally avoiding oil-related infrastructure but targeting over 90 Iranian military sites, which left export operations mostly unaffected.
Former U.S. Navy 5th Fleet commander Retired Adm. Kevin Donegan mentioned that similar objectives might be achieved without having troops on the island.
“Simply by suppressing the flow coming out of the Kharg out of the bay, we would be able to achieve the desired results,” Donegan explained. He emphasized that U.S. forces could also stop ships leaving the area.
Robbins echoed that air power could be leveraged to impair Kharg’s export capabilities rather than seizing it directly. The recent deployment of thousands of soldiers from both Marine Expeditionary Units and the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division has led to speculation about a potential ground operation.
However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a U.S. operation could be wrapped up in “weeks, not months” without any ground involvement. “We are ahead of schedule on most of these goals and we can achieve them without any ground forces,” he told reporters in Paris.
Some analysts caution that even if the U.S. military captures the island, there may not be an immediate economic impact. “Unless we also seize the tankers at sea, the full economic effect we hope for from occupying Kharg Island will be delayed,” Gregory Boulud from Eurasia Group remarked.
A strike against Kharg would target one of Iran’s most critical economic assets. “Sales of petroleum products often account for 30 to 40 percent of a country’s official budget,” Belew observed. “There’s no doubt the national budget will take a significant hit.”
However, the loss of oil revenue may not fatally weaken the regime. “The Revolutionary Guards essentially have a shadow budget,” he added, suggesting that their standing might actually improve. This indicates that while the government’s formal budget shrinks, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) could secure a larger portion of the remaining resources via alternative income.
Even if Kharg were to be taken offline, Iran has other means to keep its exports running. “We have four other export facilities in Iran,” Brew pointed out. One terminal in Jask, situated outside the Strait of Hormuz, has the capacity to handle about one-fifth of what Kharg can supply. “To completely halt it, we’d need to shut down that traffic as well,” he elaborated.
This implies that any strategy to wholly block Iranian oil exports would likely extend beyond just Kharg and necessitate targeting multiple export routes and facilities.
Securing the island would also present challenges. American forces would be within reach of Iranian drones, rockets, and missiles. “Any deployment to the island would make it vulnerable to Iranian counterattack,” Belew warned.
Robbins highlighted that maintaining forces on the island after an initial assault would be complicated. “When the players are on the field, you have to support them and it’s very difficult,” he remarked.
Some experts are questioning the ultimate purpose of a successful seizure. “The question is, for what purpose?” Robbins pondered. “I don’t see the end result of taking control of Kharg.”
President Trump had publicly announced a suspension of the planned energy infrastructure strike until April 6, citing “progress” in talks with Iran. However, Iranian authorities have voiced skepticism, accusing the president of engaging in “psychological warfare.”
Reports indicate that Iran may already be preparing for a potential invasion of Kharg, moving additional troops, reinforcing air defenses, and laying traps around the island.
The Pentagon and Iran’s U.N. mission could not be reached for comment.
