WASHINGTON – Two U.S. researchers say they have identified deployment locations in Russia for the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-tipped cruise missile that President Vladimir Putin has touted as “invincible.”
Putin said The weapon, which NATO has named SSC-X-9 Skyfall, has a nearly unlimited range and can evade US missile defenses. But some Western experts dispute his claims and the strategic value of Burevestnik, arguing that the weapon adds no capabilities Moscow does not already have and poses the risks of a radioactive accident.
Using imagery captured on July 26 by the private satellite company Planet Labs, the two researchers identified a construction project adjacent to two nuclear warhead storage facilities known as Vologda-20 and Chevsala, 295 miles (475 kilometers) north of Moscow, as the possible site for the new missiles.
Reuters was the first to report the development.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst at CNA Research and Analysis, found satellite imagery and identified nine horizontal launch pads that appear to be under construction. The pads are set up in groups of three inside high earthworks to protect them from attack or to prevent an accidental explosion on one from detonating missiles on the others, Eveleth said.
The earthworks are connected by roads and Eveleth concludes they contain buildings likely used for maintenance of missiles and their components, as well as the existing facilities of five nuclear warhead storage bunkers.
The site is for a “large fixed missile system, and Skyfall is the only large fixed missile system that Russia is currently developing,” Eveleth said.
The Russian Defense Ministry and the Washington Embassy did not respond to requests for comment on his assessment, Burevestnik's strategic value, the missile's test history or the risks it poses.
A Kremlin spokesman said the question should be directed to the Defense Ministry and declined to comment further.
The State Department, the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center declined to comment.
Identifying the missile's likely launch site suggests Russia is moving forward with deploying the missiles after a series of troubled tests in recent years, said Eveleth and Jeffrey Lewis of Middlebury International University in Monterey.
After reviewing the images at Eveleth's request, Lewis agreed with Eveleth's assessment: “The images are very unique, they suggest something very different, and it's clear that Russia is developing this nuclear-powered missile,” he said.
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who also examined the Vologda photos at Eveleth's request, said the images appeared to show a launch pad and other features “probably” linked to Burevestnik, but added that a definitive assessment could not be made because Moscow does not typically place missile pads next to nuclear warhead storage facilities.
Eveleth, Lewis, Christensen and the three other experts said it is typical for Moscow to stockpile nuclear warheads for land-based missiles far from their launch sites, excluding those for its deployed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) forces.
But deploying Burevestnik to Vologda would allow the Russian military to stockpile nuclear-tipped missiles in underground bunkers and launch them at a moment's notice, Lewis and Eveleth said.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov of Russia Modifying the guidelines Russia is considering using nuclear weapons in response to Western escalation in the war in Ukraine, state news agency TASS reported on Sunday.
Bad test record
A 2020 report by the U.S. Air Force's National Air and Space Intelligence Center said that if Russia were to successfully deploy Burevestnik, Moscow would ““A unique weapon with intercontinental range.”
But among eight experts interviewed by Reuters, the weapon's checkered history and design limitations raised questions about whether its deployment would change nuclear stakes for the West and other Russian adversaries.
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an advocacy group focused on reducing risks from nuclear, biological and emerging technologies, Burevestnik's record of testing is poor, with at least 13 tests conducted since 2016 and only two partially successful.
The State Department said setbacks also included a 2019 explosion during a failed attempt to retrieve an unshielded reactor that had been “smoldering” on the bottom of the White Sea for a year after a prototype crashed. Reports, open new tab.
Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear agency said Five staff members were killed during a rocket test on August 8. Without naming the weapon, Burevestnik, Putin said the weapon being developed was unique in the world and awarded the widow the state's highest award.
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva expert on Russian nuclear forces, Lewis, Eveleth and other experts said the move would not add any capabilities that Moscow's nuclear arsenal does not already possess, such as the ability to overwhelm U.S. missile defenses.
What's more, nuclear engines could release radiation along their flight path, posing the risk of accidents that could contaminate nearby areas, say experts including former U.S. nuclear weapons scientist Cheryl Laufer.
“Skyfall is a uniquely stupid weapons system, a flying Chernobyl, and poses a greater threat to Russia than to other countries,” agreed Thomas Countryman, a former senior State Department official at the Arms Control Association, referring to the 1986 nuclear power plant disaster.
NATO did not respond to questions about how the alliance would respond to the deployment of the weapons.
Few technical details about Burevestnik have been made public.
Experts estimate that it would be launched by a small solid-fuel rocket, which would pump air into an engine containing a small nuclear reactor, which would eject the superheated, potentially radioactive air and provide forward thrust.
Putin Published A statement released in March 2018 said the missile was “low-flying”, had a nearly unlimited range and unpredictable flight path, making it “invincible” against current and future defenses.
Many experts are skeptical of Putin's claims.
The Burevestnik has a range of about 15,000 miles (23,000 km), while Russia's newest intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat, has a range of more than 11,000 miles (17,700 km), but it travels subsonic speeds, making it detectable, they say.
“It would be as vulnerable as any cruise missile,” Christensen said. “The longer it stays in the air, the longer it has to be tracked, and the more vulnerable it becomes. I don't understand Putin's motivation.”
The deployment of Burevestnik is not prohibited by New START, the last agreement between the United States and Russia limiting the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons, which expires in February 2026.
The clause allows Washington to ask Moscow to negotiate about keeping Burevestnik under restrictions, but a State Department spokesman said no such talks had been called for.
Russia has cited the war in Ukraine as the reason for rejecting U.S. requests for unconditional talks on a replacement for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), raising concerns that its expiration would trigger a full-scale nuclear arms race.
Podvig said Moscow could use the missiles as a bargaining chip if talks were to resume.
He called Burevestnik a “political weapon” that Putin used to shore up his strongman image ahead of his 2018 reelection and signal to Washington that it could not ignore concerns about U.S. missile defense and other issues.
