The nation’s largest retail trade group expects the country’s retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, a steady but still slower pace than last year’s 3.6%. ing.
The National Retail Federation announced Wednesday that it expects retail sales to reach $5.23 trillion to $5.28 trillion this year.
The 2024 forecast is roughly in line with the pre-pandemic decade’s average annual sales growth rate of 3.6%.
“It’s hard to be bearish on consumers because the economy has been supported primarily by consumers, who have shown far more resilience than expected,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the federation’s chief economist. . “The ultimate question in 2024 is whether consumer spending can maintain its resilience.”
A strong job market and rising wages are stimulating household spending, but retail sales are volatile in the face of rising credit costs and still-high prices. Additionally, in the midst of the pandemic, shoppers are shifting their spending to services after being stuck at home and focusing on purchasing goods.
The retail group’s forecast comes from Americans. Expenses increased slightly in February after withdrawing it last month, according to the latest report from the Commerce Department. But last month’s 0.6% rise was weaker than expected, and January’s decline was further revised downward, suggesting many people are becoming more cautious with their money.
The group’s retail sales calculation excludes car dealerships, petrol stations and restaurants to focus on its core retail sector. The 2024 retail sales forecast is based on an economic model that considers a variety of indicators, including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, historical retail sales, and weather.
