Lincoln Riley’s Transition at USC

CHICAGO – After a disappointing end to the season, Lincoln Riley has shifted gears from being just a football coach to something akin to a campaign manager.

He’s been actively promoting his message: this is the strongest team he’s had since joining USC, and winning big is a real possibility.

On Tuesday, at the Big Ten Media Day, Riley delivered another impassioned speech. He shared insights about “alignment” and “momentum,” drawing parallels to his earlier successes at Oklahoma.

For the first time, Riley feels that USC is positioned with the right elements—thanks to the changes in conference, a new athletic director, and a university president. “Watching our program evolve has been exciting,” Riley remarked. “We need to become a championship-caliber program.”

But there’s a catch. There could still be setbacks—big acquisitions might be off the table—unless 2026 marks a turning point.

Currently, getting to the College Football Playoff once every five years seems the most optimistic expectation for one of the highest-paid coaches. However, aiming just for that might lower the bar too much for future aspirations.

With the expanded CFP, making it as one of the top 12 teams in the country could soon be more competitive, essentially doubling that pool.

There’s really no reason for the Trojans not to be in that mix consistently. If not, the shine of USC football will continue to fade.

The program boasts 11 national championships and eight Heisman Trophy winners, but it hasn’t matched the success experienced under Pete Carroll. Since he left post-2009, the program’s had a rough time, marked by misguided coaching choices. Lane Kiffin’s exit was abrupt, Steve Sarkisian faced personal challenges, and Clay Helton failed to maintain any promise following a brief Rose Bowl run.

When Riley joined USC before the 2022 season, he was seen as a surprise but potentially transformative hire, expected to lift the Trojans back to their former prowess, which included multiple top finishes and national titles.

Now, looking back over four years, what’s Riley’s legacy? A record of 35 wins and 18 losses—only a slight improvement over Helton’s 31-17 at the same point. The recent highlights include a mix of Holiday, Las Vegas, and Alamo Bowl outings.

Sure, Riley did lead the Trojans to a respectable season powered by Heisman winner Caleb Williams, yet that culminated in a disappointing loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Since then, it’s been a mixture of inconsistent defense and mediocre postseason performances.

It seems his strongest achievement so far is avoiding a complete fallout from the high expectations that followed him.

Once, he took Oklahoma to three CFP appearances within five years. What about USC?

So far, nothing significant. Since the last Alamo Bowl disappointment, Riley has been vocal about claiming that things are different now, insisting that his Trojans are finally ready to realize their potential. He did note the importance of winning crucial away games—looking ahead to challenging matchups against Oregon and Michigan over the next couple of years.

He stated, “If you can win those consistently, you can take down any opponent.”

However, tangible results have been lacking. A narrow victory over Iowa last season certainly didn’t compare to lifting a national championship trophy.

It’s worth noting that Curt Cignetti achieved a national title in just his second year with Indiana, a program with a poorer history and fewer resources until recently.

Riley, who has been granted ample opportunity at USC—including an impressive salary and access to a new performance center—has to deliver results. If this current team can’t move past the doubts, it may be time for a change.

The upcoming schedule looks promising with key games against Oregon State and Ohio State at home, combined with a bye week before a match against Indiana that should allow for ample preparation.

The Trojans might still reach the CFP even if they lose a couple of games, but Riley must guide them there with veteran talent and experienced coaching. And, it’s crucial that this become a regular feature of future seasons.

Anything less won’t cut it, and the athletic department certainly can’t withstand another setback for a program that defines its identity.

So, are things looking up? If 2026 isn’t the breakthrough year he’s been hoping for, it might just need to be time to reconsider his future with the team.