The Trump administration has set its sights on Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, but experts suggest that war is not likely anytime soon. Recent moves by the administration include ramping up pressure on Maduro’s regime, such as authorizing covert CIA operations near Venezuela. This appears to be more about signaling intent than preparing for open conflict, a strategy reminiscent of Trump’s earlier term.
Daniel Battle, a Latin America expert at the Hudson Institute, expressed skepticism about imminent intervention. He stated that there’s no groundwork for a military approach akin to what occurred in Panama. Instead, the administration seems focused on keeping Maduro “on the defensive” and maintaining options for exerting pressure when needed.
Interestingly, Maduro reportedly offered the Trump administration a significant stake in Venezuela’s oil and mineral resources during private discussions. However, this potential deal fell apart when Trump severed diplomatic ties on October 2. Trump reiterated on October 17 that Maduro had offered everything, but he had no plans to engage with him.
The challenges posed by Venezuelan drug cartels, like Torren de Aragua, have only intensified. These criminal organizations have extended their reach into the U.S. during the Biden administration, prompting strong condemnations of Maduro’s regime. Historically, connections to the Cartel de los Soles were among the initial reasons for imposing sanctions and seeking military presence in the region.
Trump’s recent military actions in the Caribbean and Pacific have aimed to pressure Venezuela while curbing drug trafficking into the United States. Yet, cartels are adapting, employing new strategies such as hiding their cargo aboard civilian vessels to evade U.S. naval forces.
Brent Sadler from the Heritage Foundation noted that while cartels are currently vulnerable at sea, they are known for their ability to adapt. The outcome of this campaign will depend on how well the U.S. can withstand any counterattacks from the cartels, as well as the continuity of their interdiction efforts.
Beyond stopping drug shipments, the U.S. has deployed bombers to demonstrate military presence near Venezuela. Notably, B-52 Stratofortress and B-1 Lancer bombers have conducted patrols in the region, underscoring the intent behind these military moves.
Still, Battle maintains that a full-scale war remains unlikely, as it would demand far more military resources than what is presently available. He emphasized that while the naval assets in the Caribbean are potent against drug transports, they do not equate to a capability for intervention in Venezuela.
The Department of Defense recently moved the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to enhance its operational capabilities in the Southern Command area, including the Caribbean and surrounding waters.
When asked about the ultimate objectives behind the administration’s anti-cartel operations, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt did not directly address whether regime change is part of the plan. Instead, a senior administration official reiterated that Trump’s primary focus is on combatting narco-terrorism—a fight that has led to tragic losses among Americans—while noting that there have been no discussions regarding regime change.
