Virginia is a bad football team.
The Cavaliers have 5 wins and 4 losses. They also had a -27 net point differential against FBS teams, a -2.1% net success rate (99th nationally), and a -0.12 net EPA margin per play (115th).
I wasn't impressed when they won 4 of their first 5 games against FCS Richmond, Wake Forest (by 1), Coastal Carolina, and Boston College. Since then, they have won one of three games, including blowout losses to Clemson (17 points) and North Carolina (27 points).
Notre Dame has been dominant since the upset loss to Northern Illinois. Ireland has won seven straight games by an average score of 44-10.
They are the best in the nation in defense per play allowed by EPA and are also good against the pass, ranking in the top 15 nationally in sack rate and interceptions.
Meanwhile, Virginia's offensive line has struggled in pass protection (116th nationally in sack allowed rate), and quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown four picks in the past two games.
On the other side of the ball, the Irish boast an explosive rushing attack behind two-way quarterback Riley Leonard and the always elusive running back Jeremiah Love. That will be against a Virginia front seven that ranks 118th nationally in EPA per rush allowed.
choice: Notre Dame – 22.5.
Kansas State (-7.5) vs. Arizona State
Arizona State's offense is one-dimensional. The Sun Devils are rushing to rank No. 15 in the nation behind superstar running back Cam Skatebo.
However, Kansas State boasts an elite front seven and ranks third nationally in rushing success rate.
If they can stop Skatebo, they can also stop the Sun Devils.
This situation is making the Wildcats scream. The Wildcats are fresh off a bye and are looking to bounce back from a blowout loss to Houston two weeks ago. Considering they outgained the Cougars by over 120 yards, they are likely undervalued on the market after that fluke loss.
The Sun Devils, on the other hand, are certainly overrated. They are 5-1 in one-possession games and have a plus-7 turnover margin. Their luck will suddenly decline.
Kansas State (+2.5) vs. BYU
BYU is the most overrated team in college football. They are 5-0 in one-score games, including two walk-off wins over the past three weeks, with a turnover margin of +10. Close games and turnovers are sure to turn the tide for the Cougars, who are now 9-0.
The Jayhawks, on the other hand, are one of the most underrated teams in the nation. Kansas is 3-6 despite a +5.5% net success rate (32nd in the nation) and +52 scoring differential thanks to a brutal 0-5 record in one-possession games .
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But just as Jaron Daniels returned to form, Kansas' tough luck began to change. They have won two of their last three games, giving up 40 points against fearsome defenses from Houston and Iowa State.
Behind lead running back Devin Neal and two-way Daniels, Kansas boasts one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in the nation (6th in the nation in EPA per rush). I expect them to decimate a hapless BYU front seven (106th in EPA per rush allowed) that struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks.
The Jayhawks also have a weak front seven, but they do have a reasonably decent secondary behind Melo Dotson and Kobe Bryant. This bodes well against BYU's pass-happy attack, as the Cougars rely heavily on Jake Retzlaff's questionable arm (21 turnover-worthy plays vs. 16 big-time throws).
last week: 3-0. Ole Miss (W). Boston College (West). Utah (west)
2024 season: 19-12.
