Amid the tensions caused by the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Israel with Iran, travelers are understandably apprehensive about rising ticket costs and the availability of seats for their upcoming spring and summer trips.
The head of the International Energy Agency has indicated that European nations could soon face a jet fuel shortage, which might lead airlines operating in Europe to make significant cuts in flight schedules. As a result, many airlines have hiked their checked baggage fees and implemented additional fuel surcharges, with jet fuel prices nearly doubling from around $99 a barrel in late February to approximately $209 by early April.
In light of these challenges, Air Canada has announced that it will temporarily halt flights to New York’s JFK International Airport from June 1 through October 25 to manage fuel expenses.
Other airlines, both from the U.S.—like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines—and international carriers including Air France-KLM, SAS, Philippine Airlines, and Cathay Pacific have similarly reduced routes and raised ticket prices, with more increases likely if the conflict disrupts oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shai Gilad, a former pilot and current professor at Georgetown University, notes that airlines are likely to play it safe under current conditions. This could mean that ticket prices will remain elevated until there’s a period of stability.
Despite these rising costs, travelers can still take control of their budgets when planning trips.
Act Quickly
Experts suggest that adopting a “wait-and-see” approach could be riskier this year, especially as the situation continues to evolve and we get closer to peak travel seasons.
“Even if a cease-fire is established, it might take months to get jet fuel production back to normal levels,” explained Henry Harteveldt, an aviation analyst.
Recent developments, including Iran’s decision regarding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. insistence on maintaining blockades, also highlight the uncertainty surrounding oil supply, which affects fuel pricing for airlines.
Travelers are advised that if they find a flight that fits their needs and budget, they should book it—though avoiding the cheapest basic economy fares is crucial, as they often come with restrictions.
Most North American airlines implement fees for checked bags and charge for seat selection on these basic tickets, offering limited options for refunds unless canceled within 24 hours. A standard economy ticket might offer more flexibility for a slightly higher price.
Gilad also suggests that buying refundable tickets can be a smart move, allowing flexibility to rebook if prices change significantly.
In general, booking international flights two to five months in advance and domestic flights three to six weeks ahead of time is recommended for the best fares.
Gilad cautions that last-minute bookings are likely to drive prices even higher due to airlines’ capabilities to change fares.
Please Open Your Heart
Travelers with flexible travel plans can often save money by adjusting their departure or return dates to avoid peak times, like weekends or holidays. Additionally, flying into different destinations might yield better prices—as some European cities may offer cheaper options than others.
Tools like Skyscanner’s ‘Explore Everywhere’ can help identify affordable flights without a specific destination in mind.
Looking beyond local airports can also yield better fares. Major hubs generally have more flight options and lower prices compared to smaller regional airports.
In some instances, it may be cheaper to fly into a hub after a separate, shorter flight.
Travel Light
Opting for carry-on luggage can save on hefty checked baggage fees many U.S. airlines charge. If you can’t pack light, it’s best to plan ahead since fees typically increase closer to the departure date.
Redeem Points
Despite increased ticket prices, the number of airline points needed for many flights has not spiked at the same rate. Airlines still have a need to fill seats and may offer more availability for fewer points.
Travelers short on frequent flyer miles can still redeem points for one-way tickets or cover other travel expenses with cash.
Many prefer to redeem points through their credit card booking portals, where points hold value, particularly when transferred to an airline’s loyalty program.
For example, using American Express points can help book through Air France or its partners like Delta.
Movitz emphasizes that points should be seen as a valuable asset, enhancing purchasing power for consumers.
Explore Travel Credit Cards
For those new to travel credit cards, there are significant benefits available, especially with sign-up bonuses that could cover flight costs after meeting minimum spending requirements.
Even regular spenders on essentials like groceries can accumulate points, sometimes earning more from card benefits than from actual flights.
