Power Struggle in Iran’s Leadership

A significant power struggle is unfolding at the core of Iran’s leadership, as hardline security figures push for heightened conflict with the United States. This turmoil has raised questions about who is truly in charge, especially with the absence of the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

A recent report from New York Times sheds light on how these internal divisions erupted, detailing incidents where a hardline faction reportedly attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz during July, without President Masoud Pezeshkian’s knowledge. This aggressive move compromised a U.S.-Iran agreement established only weeks earlier.

The situation led to intense confrontations in Tehran, involving shouting matches, resignation threats, and accusations of betrayal among the country’s leadership. It has also highlighted a deeper issue: Pezeshkian has expressed doubts about the authenticity of communications attributed to Khamenei, who has remained out of public view since sustaining severe injuries in February during U.S.-Israeli strikes.

This turmoil became evident when Iranian forces targeted three commercial ships, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, overnight on July 6-7, while Pezeshkian was in Iraq for mourning ceremonies related to Khamenei’s father. Furious, Pezeshkian reached out to IRGC commander General Ahmad Vahidi for clarification. Vahidi claimed he had neither authorized nor been informed about the attack beforehand, indicating that even the Supreme National Security Council was oblivious to the operation.

In response to the attacks, the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes the very next morning, effectively nullifying a recent memorandum of understanding aimed at de-escalating hostilities.

This fallout has reportedly ignited one of the most significant internal conflicts seen within Iran’s leadership since the onset of the crisis, with high-ranking generals threatening to resign amidst a flurry of accusations. The episode also resulted in changes within the Supreme National Security Council, leading to the appointment of General Mohsen Rezaei, a veteran politician and former IRGC commander, as its head, likely due to his ability to mediate between conflicting factions.

An investigation by Iranian authorities later traced the order for the ship attacks back to Hossein Taeb, a prominent hardliner and influential intelligence figure known for his opposition to agreements with Washington, according to various officials.

Alireza Namvar Haghighi, an Iranian analyst, remarked that the ship attack was a deliberate effort to sabotage the agreement with Trump and prevent any future negotiations.

Taeb, who has held senior intelligence positions for over two decades, believed that Iran erred in ceasing hostilities and accepting the deal. He voiced his opinions at a gathering of military families, asserting that negotiations undermining the rights of Iranians and yielding to the enemy were unacceptable.

Taeb’s role is crucial, largely due to his close ties with Khamenei. After a previous removal from a top intelligence position in 2022 due to security lapses, he regained influence following the elder Khamenei’s death and was instrumental in Mojtaba’s ascension.

Khamenei later placed Taeb in charge of the Basij, a paramilitary group tasked with quelling domestic unrest and directed him to enhance its intelligence capabilities as concerns grow over the country’s faltering economy potentially leading to protests.

However, when Pezeshkian sought to learn who had authorized the July attacks, he was informed privately that Khamenei had given approval.

Pezeshkian demanded proof of this claim.

This incident underscores the uncertainty swirling around Khamenei, who was injured in February and has not made any verified public appearances since then, raising doubts about the legitimacy of communications coming from him.

His noticeable absence, especially from his father’s elaborate funeral, only heightens these concerns. Pezeshkian himself admitted that getting in touch with Khamenei had been quite challenging.

Former President Trump has commented on Khamenei’s condition, suggesting he believes Khamenei is still alive but very seriously injured, citing significant damage to his left side.

The report reveals significant skepticism among Iranian officials, including Pezeshkian, about the authenticity of Khamenei’s purported communications.

There are also lingering questions about whether Pezeshkian has actually had direct contact with Khamenei. He mentioned a meeting in May but accounts from various officials suggest that the encounter involved him being transported in an ambulance while communicating through a secured video link with an intermediary instead of Khamenei directly.

Later, Pezeshkian claimed to have had another meeting with Khamenei lasting about seven hours, discussing various pressing issues like sanctions and unemployment, yet he did not disclose specifics regarding the conditions of that meeting or what was communicated.

The ambiguity surrounding who is exercising Khamenei’s authority complicates matters as factions within Tehran wrestle over whether to pursue an agreement with Washington or take a more confrontational stance, hoping to compel the U.S. to lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Some hardline commanders advocate for a strategy of attacking American targets and U.S. naval vessels, aiming to raise global oil prices and heighten military and economic tensions. They also plan to urge Iran-aligned groups in Yemen and Iraq to amplify their attacks on regional oil infrastructure.

Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have cautioned that such aggressive strategies could plunge Iran deeper into turmoil, increasing the risk of further U.S. strikes and exacerbating already challenging economic conditions.

Pezeshkian has openly discussed the necessity for a resolution, suggesting that “war has to end at some point” and that it would be wiser to conclude hostilities “while we are in a position of strength and dignity.”

Ghalibaf has echoed a more alarming warning about Iran’s capacity to sustain ongoing confrontation, asserting that without economic growth and financial circulation, military might alone would not suffice.

Trump remarked that Iran “wants to make a deal so badly,” claiming Iranian officials are in constant contact, yet he insists any agreement must meet Washington’s terms.

For now, it appears that the hardline faction pushing for increased confrontation has gained the upper hand, according to the report.

“The war between Iran and the United States has entered a phase of escalation,” noted Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Ghalibaf.