The New Yorker safely concludes the week with his position as Senate Democrat leader, and Chuck Schumer can easily rest this weekend.
This was supposed to be true despite noise, cancelled book tours and even embarrassing damage control over the past two weeks. That's the same reason Mitch McConnell continued to take charge of the Republican Senate Congress as long as he was.
IDES in March may have passed Schumer, but on the street, the knife is still very out.
However, this does not mean that Schumer can relax. The dangers from within his party still lurk on the horizon.
But first, the Senate. Isaac Newton's first law of physics dictates that the resting object will continue to rest unless acted by external forces. And while extremists like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) can get mad at the way they like on television and rallies, they are barely heard in the thick marble walls of the Upper Legislative Room.
Republicans have complained under McConnell's leadership for years. Everyone knew he had no contact with the base, had a controversial relationship with his conservative colleagues, and ranked year by year among the country's least popular politicians. so what? The issue of replacing him was logistics, momentum, internal support, retaliation, and a huge amount of money.
When leadership is determined by secret votes among dozens of powerful people, serious questions arise. Chief of them: If not Mitch McConnell, who?
Several senators had turned to the throne in John Cornyn (R-Texas) and current majority leader John Tune (Rs.D.), who had reached where they were through their loyalty to McConnell. How will they stand up to him just before they are right?
Then there was Sen. Rick Scott (R-FLA). He frayed under the Senate's slow, undirected drift, opposed McConnell, demanding actual change. Where was his support? How much money did he control and use to support his political allies (and starve his inner enemies)? He had some ideological allies of voices who were willing to publicly support him, but much of the struggle came down to money, power and simple indifference. Scott never had a chance.
It took Mitch McConnell to eventually remove Mitch McConnell from his leadership. His allies stood by him last year, until a series of nasty, very public medical episodes shook his confidence. Still, the old man set the conditions for his surrender. When he announced his decision to resign, he made it clear that he would not leave for another nine months.
The timeline irritated his conservative foe, but we could hear collective relief sighs from other Republicans who were needed to move to this point in joining the push to overthrow him. They didn't want a fight. Watch that nasty fight after Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) abdicates. They don't do that in the Senate.
Within the Senate, Democrats' resistance to Schumer was less than the Republican resistance last winter that was against McConnell.
Take, for example, radical and “independent” Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.). He toured the country with Ocasio-Cortez, denounced democratic establishment, and the crowd was caught with tape chanting to the AOC's primary Schumer. However, when his friend was asked about joining him in the Senate over the weekend, Sanders was angered and kicked out of the interview. If he doesn't speak, who would do that?
And who will replace Schumer above the Democratic Senate? Dick Durbin? Why is it different from New York men, except for the chaos and party violence needed to set up him? Certainly, similar criticisms were levelled by both Thune and Cornyn during the Republican leadership race, but that election was a bloodless issue of pure succession.
So DC moved mostly. Politico's Thursday newsletter, for example, dedicated 1,178 words to whether the Secretary of Defense was somehow responsible for adding hostile journalists to his signal chat. In contrast, Schumer's Trouble received 83 words. It's not there.
Of course, the world outside his sacred room is not so restrained by the elegance of communality, and the democratic foundation is clearly not restrained by the fear of change and confusion. The primary election could pose real problems for five senators.
Again, don't underestimate a man who has never lost an election. For example, he was challenged at the primary by Matt Bevin more than a decade before McConnell stepped down from leadership. Despite the attention of the national foundation, McConnell cleaned the clock and won nearly 25 points.
This is not because Bevin was weak in the state. The following year, Bevin unexpectedly cancelled democratic opponents for the governor after winning a four-way primary, and traditionally relied on a fierce vote from Republican districts. Rather, McConnell won through the strength of his machine and the novelty of his challengers.
However, AOCs may be another animal. Remember: She first came to power in New York by knocking out Rep. Joe Crowley, a member of the Democratic House leadership and a close ally of Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif). The AOC beat him over 13 points despite being angry with the incumbent.
The democratic foundation is where energy for Schumer actually comes, and while Sanders of the world may not see a clean route to replacing him with leadership, he may be seduced in 2028 to want Ocasio-Cortez as a colleague.
IDES in March may have passed Schumer, but on the street, the knife is still very out.
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