In over a decade, the US has engaged in negotiations with Iran alongside its Arab allies and neighbors.
This marks a strategic transition from the nuclear agreements of the Obama administration, which were perceived as imposed decisions from Washington, leading to significant skepticism in Arab capitals.
Currently, a lecture was held in Oman, where he serves as a reliable regional mediator. However, the changes are more crucial than mere geography. The Trump administration has consistently included Saudi Arabia, a historic counterbalance to Iran’s influence, in all discussions. This illustrates an increasing awareness in Washington. The final agreement partially faltered because it did not involve those most affected by the outcomes.
The shift initiated during President Trump’s first term. His foreign policy, often criticized as chaotic within Washington, was perceived quite differently in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Manama. Arab leaders grasped Trump’s approach: straightforward, transactional. You offer something, you receive something in return. No lofty discussions on democracy, no mixed signals.
Trump’s choice to exit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (jcpoa) in 2018 represented a sharp departure from prior administrations. He opted to directly confront Tehran and relied on cooperation with local entities based on shared interests rather than high-minded ideals. This precedent has stuck. His new team preserves the president’s strategic clarity, particularly regarding regional collaboration.
Recent reports suggest that Washington has finalized a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia. If formalized, it would enable the kingdom to develop a civilian nuclear program under US supervision—an action that transcends mere symbolism. It forges a connection between the US and Saudi Arabia’s long-term energy and security framework, creating a new paradigm for building alliances in the Middle East.
Additionally, the US is ready to provide Riyadh with advanced American weapons, establishing not only military alliances but also effective deterrents against Iran. Tehran’s dominance has long relied on the belief that its neighbors are divided and weak. However, this dynamic shifts significantly as Arab nations like Saudi Arabia begin to collaborate more closely with the US.
All of this suggests a broader regional reorganization. There is new speculation that Saudi Arabia may eventually join the Abraham Accords, a US-facilitated normalization agreement with Israel and several Arab nations. Riyadh has proceeded cautiously thus far. Behind closed doors, defense collaboration, intelligence exchange, and economic integration are already in motion.
The outcome? A more cohesive coalition founded on shared threats and common interests instead of ideology. This is not peace in the conventional sense but a peace established through a balance of power.
However, not everyone in the region is moving in alignment. Within the Israeli intelligence community, questions arise regarding the pressure being exerted on Tehran. Some analysts indicate that the administration may already be vulnerable, and additional provocations could lead to destabilization.
They caution that a post-military Iran comprises over 80 million people divided by ethnicity and ideology, potentially descending into chaos. Civil war is not out of the question. For Israel, this would be a worst-case scenario. For the United States, it signals an invitation to yet another ground conflict, something Washington is reluctant to entertain following prolonged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The difference in this moment lies not solely in a tougher stance towards Iran. It is more extensive. The United States is not attempting to change Iran through idealism or force. Instead, it is constructing a strategic enclosure around it—bolstered by diplomacy, local alliances, and dependable deterrents.
Lessons from the past decade are unmistakable. Overlooking regional players leads to mistrust, instability, and broken agreements. This time, Arab countries are not only bystanders; they are actively shaping the agenda. This may be the only path to a Middle East that does not rely on constant US intervention for stability.
Faisal Saeed al Mutar (@faisalalmutar)) Founder and CEO of Ideas Beyond Borders.
