With the Democratic National Convention over, the big question is whether Vice President Kamala Harris has done enough to permanently move the needle on victory in what is expected to be an extremely close presidential election.
In other words, Harris is almost certain to see a rise in her ratings after the convention, but can the vice president maintain that momentum, as former President Bill Clinton did in 1992?
At the time, Clinton Subsequent Then-President George H.W. Bush was leading 48 percent to 40 percent on the eve of the Democratic National Convention, but soon rose to a 56 percent to 34 percent lead and never lost it after that.
Or will Harris’ weaknesses be too difficult to overcome, like those of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton? In 2016, she was a big 8 points increase after the tournamentBut in the end, he was unable to defeat former President Donald Trump.
It’s too early to know fully how Harris’ performance at the Democratic National Convention will affect the polls, but by virtually any measure, the convention — and her speech — were successes.
Attractive and persuasivespeechHarris outlined a centrist platform focused on her vision for the future, positioning herself as a moderate Democrat that all voters can relate to.
Harris spoke squarely about how she would tackle key issues like abortion, the southern border, the economy, crime and foreign policy, and presented herself to voters as a warrior as she attacked Donald Trump.
Democrats showed strong unity across the party in Chicago, and their enthusiasm for supporting Harris was palpable.
But the question remains: Will that be enough to bring about a big, lasting change in Harris’ direction?
The electorate is much more polarized than in 1992, with fewer swing votes to sway, but a positive performance from Ms. Harris, who spoke out on issues such as the middle class and abortion pro-life, will be a test of whether a well-crafted convention can sway strong voter attitudes.
Pre-convention polls suggested that with no clear agenda and limited time for Harris to introduce herself to voters, her momentum was simply down to who she wasn’t.
Before Biden’s withdrawal, just one-fifth of Democrats (20%) said they were happy with the choice between Biden and Trump, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll.vote.
With Harris in the lead, the number of Democrats who say they’re satisfied with the pairing jumped to 60 percent, and most notably, the number of independents who said they were satisfied increased by 11 percentage points (from 19 percent to 30 percent) compared to when Biden was the candidate.
Major Democratic voting groups are also backing the vice president in a very different way than they did when they endorsed Joe Biden.
Between July and August, the number of voters under 40 who said they supported the Democratic candidate increased by 11 percentage points, and the share of Hispanic and black voters who said the same increased by 4 percentage points.
Similarly, more than six in 10 Democrats (62%) said they were “ardent” supporters of Harris, nearly double the number who said the same about Biden in a previous ABC/Ipsos poll.
Harris’ personal indicators, such as her favorability rating, also improved significantly in the days leading up to the Democratic National Convention, hitting all-time highs of 50% favorability and 45% unpopularity.Morning consultation.
That said, despite the success of the convention and the likely rise in her approval ratings after it, the question remains whether Harris has done enough to overcome the weaknesses revealed in pre-convention polls.
As one of us wrote in The Hill last week, multiple polls conducted ahead of the Democratic National Convention showed that voters tend to prefer Donald Trump on the issues that will define the election: the economy and inflation, immigration, crime and foreign policy.
According to IpsosvoteVoters also trust Trump more than Harris on handling inflation (41 percent to 32 percent), immigration (44 percent to 27 percent) and foreign policy (38 percent to 29 percent).
Additionally, The Economist/YouGovinvestigationThe statement, made during the Democratic National Convention, suggests Harris may be potentially vulnerable outside the Democratic base: When asked if they would consider voting for Vice President Kamala Harris, a majority of independents (53%) said they would not consider it.
Similarly, the ABC poll mentioned above suggests that while Harris is garnering support from traditional Democratic voters, she has yet to surpass Biden’s 2020 vote share among two key voting blocs.
The vice president’s 5-point lead among suburban voters (50 percent to 45 percent) is nearly half of Biden’s 11-point advantage in 2020, and her 34 percent support among white non-college voters is roughly the same as Biden’s 33 percent four years ago.Pew Research.
How opinions of the vice president change among these two groups of voters will be an important point to watch, especially after a successful Democratic National Convention. If Harris can move the needle in her direction with these key groups, the vice presidential honeymoon period may actually last until the 2024 election.
Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are partners and pollsters at Shawn Cooperman Research, a New York-based polling firm. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”
