Butler to the British Ambassador to Türkiye during World War II was spying About allies. As a butler, he had access to the ambassador's files and was able to uncover and copy top secret information, including Allied plans for D-Day. Fortunately, the Germans considered him unreliable and ignored the information.
You may not realize it now, but a single event can have far-reaching effects and set off a chain of events that no one could have foreseen.
Atrocities committed at the hands of Iran proxy Hamas on October 7, 2023 is proving that moment, and its influence extends far beyond the slaughter and torture of women and children in Israel.
As Israel continues to dismantle Hamas, it also decreased The effect of Hezbollah, another Iranian proxy, closing the border between Lebanon and Syria.
As Hezbollah becomes unstable, The opportunity itself appeared In Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, seized the opportunity (along with other rebel groups) to launch a long-awaited attack on Assad, securing Assad's power. Collapse of Assad regime within 10 days.
of rebel army They are now in full control of Syria, and by Assad's “humanitarians” exile in russiaIran's regional agency complex will be significantly reduced.
In a domino effect of Hamas, Hezbollah, and finally Syria, Iranian influence has severely undermined its regional ambitions.
Iran is at a crossroads. It can include “.”realpolitik” Through practical and pragmatic negotiations with the West, it could also “roll the dice” with the aim of becoming a nuclear-weapon state.
Rafael Grossi, the United Nations' chief nuclear inspector, reiterated this recently. his concerns: Iran has been increasing its stockpile of refined uranium, coming dangerously close to the concentration needed for a nuclear weapon.
Around the same time, former Iranian nuclear negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif called Discussions regarding the country's nuclear program resume. Ostensibly, Iran's new “tolerant” president, Masoud Pezeshkian, aims to “engage constructively with Western countries.”
A view of Iran that no longer has substanceaxis of resistance” is a serious violation at best. Will he choose the more plausible path of “realpolitik” or tempt fate in the face of a courageous Netanyahu and Trump?
Iran has previously pursued a less radical foreign policy toward the West under President Ali Rafsanjani. more cordial attitude. It is possible that similar policies could bear fruit again. Pezeshkian.
There are two questions before us. Will Iran make a wise choice? And will President Trump give “realpolitik” a chance to “bear fruit” if Iran so desires?
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida), President Trump's nominee for secretary of state, has been quite vocal about his predictions. danger of iran. Sensing Iran's weakness, it is possible that President-elect Trump (influenced by his advisers) may accept nothing more than a complete withdrawal from the nuclear program.
Since so much of Iran's leadership (religious and otherwise) is driven by respect from the West and acceptance by the Arab League, it is hoped that cooler, more rational heads will take hold within the regime. Iran's leaders are therefore not keen on abandoning what the country has staked so much effort on for respect and power: its nuclear program.
However, there remains a possibility (and hope) that Iran will adopt a more plausible approach in its dialogue with the West, perhaps keeping its nuclear program for domestic use only. This will allow Iran to save face.
Middle East today experts agree The biggest threat to Washington is not Iran but China. iranian Masses mobilized for democracy In response to the 2009 presidential election. And although history is not a sufficient prerequisite for defending national interests, let's not forget that, according to declassified CIA documents, it was the United States and Britain that did it. denied democracy in Iran Once before, by a coup orchestrated by the CIA/MI6.
In Assad's absence, Iran has little reason to pursue an alternative (and potentially counterproductive) political “nuclear” policy.
Given Israel's superior nuclear and conventional military capabilities and the anticipated arrival of President-elect Trump, “realpolitik” is Iran's best option, with realistic expectations and transparency regarding its nuclear design. It is one.
If Israel senses that Iran is choosing a nuclear policy, it will not hesitate to eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities (with or without U.S. acquiescence). (This plan is already being rehearsed for immediate implementation.)
Moreover, Iran is well aware of Israel's concerns and capabilities when it comes to abandoning “realpolitik” (more realistic) solutions to political dilemmas.
With appropriate diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration, Could send Iran into orbit Building constructive bilateral relations with Western countries.
Several conditions are key for Iran and the United States to reach a sustainable nuclear deal, with each party claiming credit for the success.
The Trump administration should resume dialogue with Iran through direct negotiations. Pezeshkian – Implementation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty – including verification of Iran's nuclear program. Iran must receive sanctions relief (as compensation). As a result of this achievement, Persian Gulf states should establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region as a first step toward collective security.
The United States should complete this effort through further negotiations that foster comprehensive agreements among regional countries to establish integrated mechanisms (through treaties) for mutual security and cooperative cooperation.
The Trump administration faces an opportunity of immense potential, but it also faces great danger. Now is not the time to talk about individuality. Instead, what is in America's “long-term” interests: diplomacy that serves America's strategic leadership, articulated through the judicious (not personal or expedient) use of economic and political hegemony. policy, a foreign policy in which military solutions must always remain. Optional, but not necessarily the default option.
F. Andrew Wolfe, Jr. is the director of the Fulcrum Institute, an organization of current and former scholars in the humanities, arts, and sciences.
