Young Voters Favor Mamdani as Cuomo Gains Ground

Polls on the final day of early voting in New York reveal that Gen Z and Millennials have outnumbered older generations. A striking new poll for the mayoral race indicates that former Governor Andrew Cuomo is narrowing the gap with Zoran Mamdani, who previously had a solid lead.

Over the weekend, younger voters—who had supported Mamdani during the primaries—far surpassed those aged 50 and older. Experts commented that, while this could seem surprising, it wasn’t necessarily detrimental for Cuomo.

Data from the city Board of Education shows that about 186,843 voters aged 18 to 49 participated between Friday and Sunday, compared to 148,462 voters aged 50 and above.

Mamdani had achieved historic turnout during the primary, helping him secure the Democratic nomination from Cuomo. However, Cuomo has struggled to regain favor with younger voters following his controversial handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and numerous sexual assault claims against him.

Stephen Graves, a Gotham Polling analyst, warned that despite the strong youth turnout, older voters are expected to make their voices heard on Election Day. “There are definitely more people who should be cautious. This is common on election day,” he noted, referring to the lower turnout in the primary likely due to the heat.

Graves added, “Young people are showing up early. It’s not surprising that early voters often trend younger, and this benefits Mamdani.”

At 34, Mamdani has captured a dedicated following due to his savvy campaign that resonates with online trends and community engagement. However, he faced challenges in appealing to older voters who are skeptical of liberal initiatives, like proposals to freeze rents.

Graves projected that the total vote count could surpass 2 million, a milestone not reached since 1969, when John Lindsay controversially won reelection despite losing the Republican primary and running as a Libertarian.

As early voting wrapped up, over 730,000 New Yorkers had already cast their ballots.

Graves mentioned that if voter participation hits over 2 million, it could turn in Cuomo’s favor. “As turnout increases, it tends to moderate, bringing independents into the mix,” he explained.

This could be advantageous for Cuomo, particularly since many of Mamdani’s supporters are Democrats, while Cuomo’s appeal among independents has grown. Nonetheless, there remains a chance for Mamdani to secure support from the Democratic base.

Evan Ross-Smith, a pollster at Slingshot Strategies, indicated that while the increase in young voter turnout is beneficial for Mamdani, he no longer relies on it as heavily as in the primary. “If he can keep that voter turnout, it will be crucial for him to achieve over 50%,” Smith noted.

Early voting wrapped just a day after an Atlas Intel poll revealed that Mr. Mamdani, who had previously enjoyed a double-digit lead, was only 6.6 points ahead of Mr. Cuomo as Election Day approached.