President Donald Trump is advocating for a ceasefire in Ukraine. However, even if President Putin agrees, it seems likely that the U.S. would remain less secure. This is largely due to the fact that the conflict has intensified the alliance between China and Russia, which poses a significant military threat to America.
Since Trump last met Putin at the 2019 G20 summit in Osaka, the Chinese-Russian partnership has significantly expanded. In 2022, China effectively gave Russia the go-ahead to act in Ukraine. Both nations are currently engaged in substantial military exercises and are enhancing technical cooperation, racing to develop new nuclear weapons and missiles. Not to mention the involvement of Iran and North Korea, who act as supporting partners with troops and drones.
As Trump prepares to meet Putin at Elmendorf’s joint base, it’s crucial to consider how closely aligned Putin is with China’s Xi Jinping—a somewhat alarming thought.
Trump’s Strategy Shift on Russia: From Narrative to Tactics
China views Russia as a vital ally in global conflicts. NATO’s new commander, Alexus Grinkeivic, has expressed concerns that China could coordinate new Russian attacks in Europe concurrently with actions against Taiwan. This could lead to two crises—each with worldwide ramifications.
Let’s be clear: economically, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China. For instance, China purchases about 47% of Russian oil. In turn, Russia’s military also relies on Chinese support. Over the last four years of conflict, Russian leadership has overhauled its military and economic frameworks to sustain what it terms a prolonged struggle against the West, as noted by General Christopher Cavalli.
Putin needs to maintain a robust military presence and can’t afford any setbacks, like a downturn in Russia’s economy. About 40% of Russia’s federal budget goes towards military expenditures, and they are diligently working to replace the military assets lost in Ukraine. Their connection with China is vital for ensuring operational capacities and keeping Putin in power, as evidenced by China supplying DJI drones, which are claimed to be for civilian use. In addition, Russia is obtaining rare earth elements and gallium from China. Alarmingly, imports of Chinese nitrocellulose—used in explosives—have soared dramatically this year.
Besides backing Russia in the ongoing war, China is evolving into a military ally, extending its operational capabilities and refining tactics for global military scenarios. Although China hasn’t engaged in recent combat, they compensate with a flurry of military drills where Russia often takes on a mentoring role. Joint exercises have increased significantly from just two in 2012 to 14 in 2024. For instance, from August 1 to August 5, Russian naval forces conducted submarine training with China in the Sea of Japan. Recently, Russian TU-95 bombers were spotted patrolling alongside Chinese bombers near Alaska, further strengthening their military collaboration.
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The U.S. government in Washington, D.C. seems slow to grasp the full extent of the threats posed by the alliance between Putin and Xi. The current administration’s approach to foreign policy hasn’t helped, yet the roots of these issues can be traced back to the Obama era. An example includes when President Obama met with then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010. It’s noteworthy that Medvedev recently made alarming comments regarding a potential nuclear strike, following which Russia positioned two nuclear submarines more strategically.
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It’s crucial for the U.S. to synchronize its military and economic efforts to navigate the challenges posed by this alliance. Secondary sanctions could be a vital tool. Alaska serves as a strategic stronghold, housing advanced stealth fighters and missile defense systems. Therefore, this summit presents an opportunity for Trump to remind Putin that U.S. forces cannot be easily dismissed, even by the formidable duo of China and Russia.
While Trump may have the potential to halt the violence in Ukraine, his greatest challenge—ensuring the safety of America—remains on the horizon.
