California Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats are proposing a plan that could significantly alter the congressional district landscape, potentially eliminating over half of the GOP’s current representation in the state amid ongoing discussions about gerrymandering.
Currently, Republicans hold nine seats, while Democrats have a commanding 43. According to the proposed changes, Democrats could gain an additional five seats.
Democratic leaders assert that this new map would better serve the interests of California’s voters and counter what they view as unethical redistricting practices prevalent in Texas and other predominantly Republican states.
The following are some Republican representatives who may face challenges under this proposed plan.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa, District 1
In Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s district has a voter registration advantage of +17 for Republicans. However, the new zoning proposal shifts that staunch advantage to +10 for Democrats by redesignating large portions of the district.
Rep. Kevin Kiley, District 3
For Rep. Kevin Kiley, his district currently has a +6 Republican advantage in voter registration. But the proposed changes could flip that to a +8 advantage for Democrats, incorporating more blue-leaning suburbs near Sacramento.
Rep. David Valadao, District 22
Rep. David Valadao, one of the few remaining Republicans, has managed to hold onto a district that traditionally leans Democratic. Under the new plan, however, Democrats would strengthen their position with a six-point advantage.
Rep. Ken Calvert, District 41
In Rep. Ken Calvert’s 41st District, there’s a notable shift toward a +20 advantage for Democrats, displacing the previous Republican voter registration edge. Calvert has expressed concerns, noting that 64% of Californians oppose what he describes as Newsom’s “Power Grab,” advocating for an independent commission to manage redistricting.
Rep. Darrell Issa, District 48
Rep. Darrell Issa’s district has also changed, with parts of it expanding into traditionally Democratic areas. While the district may have favored Trump by +15 in 2024, new calculations show it leaning +3 for Democrats under the proposed boundaries.
Overall, of the five districts potentially affected, Valadao and Issa could become lean Democratic, while others may solidify into stronger Democratic seats, signaling a challenging landscape for Republican candidates moving forward.
