Goodbye to Biden’s Work Boom

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) performed its usual annual adjustments and recognized a significant change. The US economy supposedly added 911,000 jobs in the year ending March 2025—more than previously reported. However, this past week marked the largest downward revision ever.

Instead of the anticipated 1.8 million jobs, only about 850,000 were created. The average monthly job creation rate wasn’t 147,000, but rather closer to 70,000.

This comes after last year’s revision, which deleted nearly 600,000 jobs from the totals for the fiscal year ending March 2024. For the second consecutive year, the government’s most scrutinized employment series has painted an overly positive picture.

Cheerleaders of “Bidenomics” assured us that our concerns were simply figments of our imaginations, a trick of social media perception.

As it turns out, voters were correct, while the official statistics missed the mark.

A Curious Narrative

Throughout much of 2023 and 2024, the US wasn’t really in a recession; the narrative suggested otherwise. Reports indicated strength in the economy, and only those misinformed seemed to perceive any weakness.

Paul Krugman was among the most fervent proponents of this idea. In July 2024, he claimed that Americans believed the official numbers were significantly worse than they were, and just months prior, he insisted that “by normal measures… the US economy is not in a bad state.” In fact, he argued it was performing better than most global peers.

When confronted with the thought that Americans might weigh their personal experiences differently from the numbers, he often sighed, displaying frustration with those who wouldn’t trust the experts.

But sighing doesn’t change facts. The statistics were misleading. The so-called “booming” labor market was actually growing at half the rate suggested. It was a reality many in the public recognized before the experts did.

High Prices and Distrust

The tone from the experts remained consistent: they dismissed public concerns. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell proclaimed the economy was “amazing” in December 2024. Meanwhile, Jared Bernstein from the White House Economic Advisors Council asserted in June 2024 that public skepticism was just ignorance. While inflation fell and employment reports indicated new jobs, anyone who contested this was labeled as partisan.

It now seems the public had a clearer grasp of the economic situation than those claiming expertise.

The Fed’s Role

The Federal Reserve didn’t merely witness the creation of this narrative; it bought into it. In late 2024, the Fed lowered interest rates under the impression the economy was continuing to add jobs robustly. However, Donald Trump’s recovery phase had come to a halt.

Looking back, it’s apparent the central bank was behind the curve. The labor market was adding merely 70,000 jobs a month—not the robust figures necessary to keep pace with population growth.

Future historians examining monetary policy will likely view the first half of 2025 as a missed opportunity for the US economy, marking another misstep in Powell’s leadership. By August 2025, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, its highest in almost four years, while the BLS faced credibility issues over inflated job statistics.

Political Fallout

This revision also affects the interpretation of political legacies. Recently, the narrative suggested that Donald Trump had handed over a thriving economy. Reports highlighted strong growth, rising employment, and decreasing inflation, with some even noting how America was outperforming its peers. There seemed to be a puzzling juxtaposition of a robust labor market with voter unease.

Yet, the supposed paradox wasn’t a paradox at all. The so-called “work boom” under Biden was illusory, masking underlying weaknesses that many voters felt keenly. The next president inherits an economy clouded by misleading data.

Exaggerated Realities

This situation isn’t merely a statistical oddity—it reveals a troubling pattern. In February 2025, BLS made nearly 600,000 downward adjustments for the year ending March 2024. For two years, the government overstated the labor market’s strength, almost reminiscent of propaganda from economically managed regimes.

This discrepancy isn’t rooted in voter psychology or a Republican narrative; instead, it stems from measurement challenges faced by government economists.

The past two years demonstrate a clear lesson: Ordinary Americans identified the slowdown before experts did. They recognized their pay was stagnant, job availability was low, and security felt fragile. They were right, and the experts were wrong.

If Trump has a path back to the Oval Office, it’s largely because voters saw through the statistics and acknowledged the reality before the experts caught up.