Impact of Mayor Adams’ Withdrawal on NYC Race
Mayor Eric Adams’ decision to step back from his re-election campaign seems to provide a lift for Andrew Cuomo in the race for city hall. However, many believe it won’t be enough to overshadow candidates like Zoran Mamdani, who is competing for the Democratic nomination.
Leading up to Sunday’s announcement, Adams was polling in the high single digits, a figure that wasn’t likely to alter the current dynamics of the election, according to Lee Millingoff, director at the Marist University Institute of Public Opinion.
In a recent Marist poll, Adams garnered only 9% support, which placed him behind Mamdani, Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Adams’ supporters are simply too few to shift their votes significantly elsewhere, underscoring his limited impact on the race.
“While it gives Cuomo a slight edge, it’s just not substantial enough,” Millingoff noted.
Evan Roth Smith, a founding partner at Slingshot Strategies, echoed this sentiment, stating there aren’t enough voters from Adams’ camp ready to make a decisive change.
He elaborated, “Cuomo may gain a few points, but he needs much more to really catch up to Mamdani.”
Recent surveys indicate that Mamdani leads Cuomo by roughly 20%.
Democratic socialists celebrated Adams’ decision, directly addressing Cuomo in social media clips, with Mamdani asserting, “Andrew Cuomo, you got what you wished for…” referring to his competition clearing.
He added, “But just remember, we outperformed you by 13 points before, and we’re ready to do it again on November 4th.”
Mamdani’s advisor pointed to Adams’ association with Trump as a liability, suggesting that the mayor’s earlier choices have negatively affected his standing.
Patrick Gaspard, a former U.S. ambassador and adviser to Mamdani, remarked that Adams’ exit might create openings with older black voters who initially supported him.
While some believe Adams stepping back is significant, others caution that the race is still competitive. Civil rights activist Pastor Al Sharpton noted, “This could heat things up,” recognizing that it could transform the environment of the election.
Sharpton acknowledged Mamdani’s advantage, but suggested it ultimately hinges on Cuomo’s actions moving forward. The expectation is that many of Adams’ former supporters might gravitate toward Cuomo.
Yet, it’s not straightforward; Cuomo may still be splitting votes with Sliwa and others opposed to Mamdani.
Millingoff highlighted that Cuomo needs to unite these factions if he hopes to challenge effectively.
Interestingly, as Trump has responded to Sliwa’s candidacy, there’s a question lingering about how Republicans might strategize their votes.
Basil Smickle, a political strategist with experience in major campaigns, remarked that given Adams’ dismal ratings, his exit might not cause any seismic shifts in the race. Instead, it may set the stage for a clearer contest between Cuomo and Mamdani.
Smith pointed out that Adams was one of the better communicators in this race, asserting he could draw attention and convey messages effectively. “His campaign style was compelling,” he concluded, noting he had previously contested against Adams.
