Even with the recent tariffs like Whippo affecting the economy and other domestic issues, President Trump’s approval ratings remain surprisingly stable.
As we enter the last quarter of 2025, a recent New York Times poll indicates a 43% approval rate for Trump, contrasted by a 54% disapproval.
Looking back to mid-April, these figures have hardly changed, sticking pretty much within a 3-point range. Other data sources, like RealClearPolitics, show similar results.
This consistency suggests a solid base of support at both the high and low ends.
What remains uncertain is how this steady trend will be affected by the government shutdown that started on Wednesday. This issue could significantly influence the upcoming midterm elections.
In other words, Trump’s supporters seem to remain loyal, while his detractors continue to oppose him.
For the GOP to thrive in the coming months, reaching out to independents who backed Trump’s policies on the economy, immigration, and crime is essential. Meanwhile, Democrats must demonstrate that Trump is falling short of his promises or that he is worsening these issues.
Consequently, while Trump’s voter base might seem limited, there’s an underlying need for both parties to pay attention to the warning signs, especially with Democrats struggling to maintain popularity.
It’s concerning for Trump and the GOP that a significant majority of Americans—about 59%—feel the country is on the wrong path.
According to the same poll, many people disapprove of Trump’s management of the economy and healthcare, with 53% expressing discontent in both areas. Given that this shutdown involves healthcare funding, the administration must address these concerns to avoid further declines in Trump’s approval numbers.
At the same time, about 26% of voters, including 24% of independents, say they view the economy positively according to a New York Times/Siena poll. This reflects a growing trend of economic pessimism.
RealClearPolitics shows that most polls conducted since March reveal negative perceptions of Trump’s economic performance, with just a couple of exceptions.
For Trump’s support, the stock market might seem to indicate temporary weakness, but that doesn’t fully capture the sentiment among Americans, who appear anxious. Extended shutdowns, job cuts, and benefit delays could heighten these worries.
Polls also indicate ongoing challenges for Democrats, even as many disapprove of Trump’s job performance. In a tight race for Congress, Democrats lead by just two points (47% to 45%) in the New York Times/Siena poll, a slight change since an earlier three-point advantage.
Marist polling highlights dissatisfaction with the Democratic congressional leadership, with just 25% approval noted, while 62% of voters expressed disapproval. Among independents, two-thirds disapprove, and only 19% give approval. If this trend continues, it could spell trouble for Democrats in the coming months.
How long the shutdown lasts and how public sentiment shifts is yet to be determined, but it’s clear that Democrats face uphill battles. The New York Times/Siena poll reveals that 65% of voters—including 59% of independents and 43% of Democrats—agree that “Democrats should not shut down the government even if their demands aren’t met.”
This reflects a continued voting trend since the 2024 election. Democrats are struggling to consolidate their influence against Trump and lack cohesive leadership, leading to dwindling popularity.
Pew Research indicates that six in ten Democratic voters (59%) are dissatisfied with their party’s congressional leaders. In contrast, GOP congressional leaders enjoy a 69% approval rating, highlighting a significant gap in satisfaction between the two parties.
The issues surrounding crime and immigration intensify the Democratic struggle and remain crucial for voters in 2024, which previously bolstered Trump’s support.
Moreover, 54% of voters approved Trump’s policy on deporting illegal immigrants according to the NYT/Siena survey, and 48% backed his approach to crime, marking his most favorable notes. A majority of U.S. adults (55%) also support his border security measures.
Ultimately, while Trump’s overall approval stays narrow, the underlying shifts will be significant in the midterms.
Should Democrats manage to leverage Trump’s low ratings in key areas such as the economy, inflation, and healthcare, voters might start viewing them as a credible alternative.
On the flip side, Republicans could gain control of Congress if the administration’s actions lead to economic improvement, increased job growth, and a boost in consumer confidence.
